Tiger Research: Will Bitcoin be broken by quantum computers?

The progress of quantum computing is bringing new security risks to blockchain networks. This report is authored by Tiger Research, aiming to explore technologies designed to counter quantum threats and examine how Bitcoin and Ethereum are preparing for this transition.

Key Points

• The Q-Day scenario, where quantum computers can break blockchain cryptography, is estimated to arrive in 5 to 7 years. BlackRock has also pointed out this risk in its Bitcoin ETF application documents.
• Post-quantum cryptography provides protection against quantum attacks at three security levels: communication encryption, transaction signing, and data persistence.
• Companies like Google and AWS have already begun adopting post-quantum cryptography, but Bitcoin and Ethereum are still in the early discussion stages.

1. A New Technology Raises Unfamiliar Questions

If a quantum computer can crack a Bitcoin wallet in minutes, can the security of the blockchain be maintained?

The core of blockchain security is private key protection. To steal someone's Bitcoin, an attacker must obtain the private key, which is practically impossible with current computing methods. Only the public key is visible on the chain, and even using a supercomputer, deriving the private key from the public key would take hundreds of years.

Quantum computers change this risk landscape. Classical computers process 0s or 1s sequentially, while quantum systems can process both states simultaneously. This capability theoretically makes it possible to derive the private key from the public key.

Experts estimate that quantum computers capable of breaking modern cryptography may appear around 2030. This anticipated moment is referred to as Q-Day, indicating that there are five to seven years left before actual attacks become feasible.

Source: SEC

Regulators and major institutions have recognized this risk. In 2024, the U.S. National Institute of Standards and Technology introduced post-quantum cryptography standards. BlackRock also pointed out in its Bitcoin ETF application