Matrixport Market Observation: Rebound Repair or Trend Reversal?

On a macro level, the Federal Reserve's policy expectations have clearly turned dovish, with the probability of a rate cut in December rising from about 30% at the beginning of the month to nearly 90%, providing key support for the rebound in risk assets. Geopolitical risks have not escalated further, and the "Fear and Greed Index" has rebounded from the extreme fear zone, showing a marginal improvement in market sentiment. Meanwhile, after several weeks of net outflows, crypto investment products have begun to show signs of slight capital inflows.

BTC and ETH Stabilize and Rebound, On-chain and Derivatives Synchronize Recovery

As of December 1, Bitcoin is currently trading around $91,500, rebounding about 15% from last week's low of $80,000. The $80,000 level has initially formed a phase support, but the $98,000--$100,000 range remains a key resistance area. If it cannot break through effectively, this round of increase may still belong to a technical rebound. Ethereum is currently around $3,025, returning above $3,000 has eased market tension. If it can stabilize above $3,200, it will be more favorable for confirming trend recovery.

On-chain data is releasing positive signals. During November, the supply of stablecoins like USDT increased by about $1.3 billion, reflecting a preemptive risk-averse capital flow; recently, some stablecoins have flowed back into exchanges, indicating a recovery in allocation willingness. The staking rate of Ethereum is close to 30% of the total supply, and the active addresses for BTC and ETH have stabilized and rebounded, with whale addresses continuously accumulating at low levels, indicating that long-term capital layouts have not changed. In terms of derivatives, implied volatility has fallen, the Put/Call ratio has returned to balance, and the funding rate for perpetual contracts has turned positive, with bullish momentum gradually recovering.

Structural Opportunities and Allocation Ideas

At the sector level, Layer 2, RWA, and the Solana ecosystem are showing resilience. The user activity of Ethereum's Layer 2 network remains stable, and the tokenization scale of on-chain government bonds and real-world assets in the RWA track continues to expand, providing stable yield anchors. SOL has rebounded significantly since the low in November, combined with positive expectations for spot ETFs, the confidence in the ecosystem continues to warm.

In terms of strategy, if it is judged that the current phase is a technical rebound, it is recommended to focus on stable yield structured tools to gain range profits during fluctuations; if it is believed that the market has entered the early stage of a reversal, tools such as Accumulator and positive FCN can be used for bullish layouts, enhancing yield elasticity while controlling risks.

Overall, multiple indicators show that the market is moving from a state of panic into a recovery phase, but key resistance has not yet been broken, and macro policies are still pending implementation. Before the trend becomes truly clear, flexible allocation and seeking progress while maintaining stability remain the better response strategy at this stage.

The above content is from Daniel Yu, Head of Asset Management, and represents the author's personal views only.

Disclaimer: The market has risks, and investment should be cautious. This article does not constitute investment advice. Trading in digital assets may involve significant risks and volatility. Investment decisions should be made after careful consideration of personal circumstances and consultation with financial professionals. Matrixport is not responsible for any investment decisions made based on the information provided in this content.