They knew in advance the TGA Game of the Year and made over ten thousand dollars

Author: Liu Kaiwen

Today, the highly anticipated TGA (The Game Awards) ceremony in the gaming world has finally come to a close.

Let's rewind to three hours before the awards ended. At this time, the "Best Independent Game" award had just been given to the popular title "Light and Shadow: Expedition Team 33," but this left many fans worried: historically, no game has ever won both the "Best Independent Game" and "Game of the Year (GOTY)" awards at TGA.

As a GOTY contender, "Light and Shadow" now had the responsibility of breaking the curse that has existed since TGA's inception, creating an unprecedented moment in the gaming industry.

Just when everyone was feeling anxious, a mysterious individual registered an account on a seemingly unrelated "prediction market" platform and deposited ten thousand dollars. He found the topic "Will Light and Shadow win the 2025 GOTY?" on the platform and bet the entire ten thousand dollars he just deposited on "Yes."

At this time, the price for "Yes," representing the probability of the event, was $0.98 per share, meaning that even if "Light and Shadow" truly made history by winning both awards, his bet of ten thousand dollars would only yield a profit of less than two hundred dollars. However, if "Light and Shadow" failed to break the TGA curse, the probability for this topic would instantly drop to 0, meaning his recently deposited ten thousand dollars would be wiped out.

What kind of passionate fan of "Light and Shadow" would take such reckless risks? How does the prediction market attract gaming enthusiasts from around the world to speculate on award favorites in advance?

The Script of "Pre-Determined" Outcomes

As early as October 30, a month and a half before the awards ceremony, the prediction market Polymarket launched the topic "2025 Game of the Year." The probability of "Light and Shadow" winning was firmly pegged at over 80% from the start, while the probabilities for other highly anticipated AAA titles were suppressed below 10%. This one-sided situation, which typically only occurs in events where the outcome is already certain, raised suspicions among many traders: this was not just optimism; it was certainty.

Among these traders with a "certainty" attitude, a few had extremely uniform trading styles. DieselDiesel, trumpnogo, and kasae all placed bets on "Light and Shadow winning the TGA 2025 GOTY" at around 85% probability, wagering amounts that were dozens or even hundreds of times greater than their usual bets. This extreme concentration and abnormal betting behavior put them at significant risk: if "Light and Shadow" ultimately did not win, they would not only have to give back all their past profits but also incur substantial losses.

As time went on and the probability of "Light and Shadow" winning increased, they did not sell any of their holdings for profit. Even three hours before the award announcement, after the "Best Independent Game" award had been revealed, they remained unmoved, seemingly knowing the future, and, along with the mysterious individual mentioned at the beginning, gambled their entire account for a tiny final profit.

The Historic Award Moment and the Cashing In of Insider Knowledge

Amidst doubts and unease, TGA, as if following the script laid out by these traders over a month ago, dispelled the final suspense: the much-anticipated "Light and Shadow," after already winning the "Best Independent Game" award, broke the historical curse and won the Game of the Year award.

While players on one side were cheering, the prediction market revealed the final mystery: the three traders who had determined a month ago that "Light and Shadow" would win solidified their roles as "prophets," achieving substantial profits:

DieselDiesel made a profit of $5,357 from this event, accounting for 176% of all his other trading profits;

trumpnogo made a profit of $2,958 from this event, accounting for 62% of all his other trading profits;

kasae made a profit of $1,658 from this event, accounting for 220% of all his other trading profits.

And the mysterious individual we mentioned at the beginning (bobo9997) won "up to" $200 from his ten thousand dollar bet, firmly believing that "Light and Shadow would make history."

"Even Prophets Need to Eat"

The most noteworthy commonality among these four traders is that, while many players questioned whether "Light and Shadow" could break the historical curse, they were willing to risk nearly $100,000 in positions to "bet" that this historic moment would occur, yet their combined profits from this "gamble" amounted to less than two thousand dollars.

Now, let’s assume these "prophets" are TGA vote auditing staff. As insiders with an annual income of $100,000, if they wanted to monetize the information in a traditional way, they would need to sell the insider knowledge to media platforms, which would entail various potential fines, termination, or even imprisonment.

However, with the emergence of prediction markets, they can anonymously exchange the information gap for real cash equivalent to one to three months of disposable income.

When we view them as insiders who already know the results, everything becomes clear: with 100% confirmation that "Light and Shadow" would be GOTY, their "bet" at the final moment was merely a way to wait for an hour before the awards, trading what seemed like a huge risk for a profit of two thousand dollars that was actually a certainty.

This seemingly risky but, for them, certain money-making "bet" would have been nearly impossible to encounter before the emergence of platforms like prediction markets.

However, with the popularity of Polymarket, how many people can resist the temptation to convert information into real cash anonymously?