Citi: The upcoming non-farm payroll report may release more contradictory signals

According to Jin Shi reports, the Financial Times analysis pointed out that the U.S. non-farm payroll report to be released next Tuesday will include data from October and November, ultimately providing policymakers and investors with a more complete picture of the U.S. labor market, ending months of partial blind flying. The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates to a three-year low after a meeting this week marked by significant divisions, with several officials dissenting, focusing on whether to prioritize addressing high inflation or a weak job market.

Citigroup economists noted that the upcoming employment report may release more contradictory signals. The bank expects a decrease of about 45,000 jobs in October, but an increase of 80,000 in November.

Citigroup economists stated that this rebound may be more related to seasonal data adjustments rather than a "real improvement in worker demand." They also predict that the unemployment rate will rise from 4.4% to 4.52%, while a Reuters survey of economists shows the unemployment rate at 4.4%. The Federal Reserve's own quarterly forecast indicates that the median unemployment rate is about 4.5% by the end of this year.