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According to Catcher Predict monitoring, in the predicted market Polymarket for the event "Mubadala Citi DC Open: Kei Nishikori vs. Zhang Zhizhen," the sub-market "Mubadala Citi DC Open: Kei Nishikori vs. Zhang Zhizhen Second Set Winner" saw the winning probability for the option "Kei Nishikori" fluctuate dramatically, rising from 47.5% an hour ago to the current 93.5% (a fluctuation of 46%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

The European Union has further tightened restrictions on cryptocurrency assets related to Belarus, prohibiting Belarusian citizens and residents from owning, controlling, or managing cryptocurrency service providers regulated by the Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA). According to the Council Decision (CFSP) 2026/1847 passed by the EU Council, this measure is an extension of the EU's sanctions framework against Belarus's involvement in the Russia-Ukraine conflict.The new regulations will officially take effect on July 24, with the expanded restrictions on the cryptocurrency industry set to be implemented from August 25. According to MiCA, the affected services include operating cryptocurrency trading platforms, cryptocurrency exchanges, executing and transmitting customer orders, cryptocurrency issuance services, asset transfer services, investment consulting, and portfolio management.This restriction comes as the MiCA transition period ends on July 1. The EU had previously required unauthorized cryptocurrency businesses to cease related operations, or face regulatory enforcement. The EU stated that this expansion of restrictions is part of its efforts to combat the use of cryptocurrency platforms to evade sanctions against Russia. Previously, in the 21st round of sanctions against Russia, the EU had expanded the trading ban to 14 cryptocurrency-related service platforms outside the EU and established a mechanism to prohibit future transactions with any foreign cryptocurrency service providers identified as helping Russia evade sanctions. Market participants noted that as the MiCA regulatory framework is fully implemented, the EU is further strengthening its regulatory control over the cryptocurrency industry through licensing systems and sanction mechanisms.

Citigroup has downgraded the rating of the South Korean stock market from overweight to tactical neutral, due to the severe fluctuations in chip stocks in recent weeks. The institution aims to reduce exposure to the AI theme. The Korea Composite Stock Price Index was one of the best-performing stock markets globally this year, benefiting from the AI trading boom, but has recently experienced significant volatility due to retail enthusiasm for single-stock leveraged ETFs and valuation concerns. Citigroup stated that almost all client discussions are now refocusing on the prospects of an expanded market performance in the second half of the year, but they remain cautious about a complete withdrawal from the technology sector in emerging market allocations.Citigroup maintains a structurally bullish outlook on the AI theme while upgrading its rating on China to overweight.

According to a statement from the U.S. Attorney's Office for the Eastern District of New York, two Chinese citizens, Chen Zhuoying (also known as "Jolene," 27 years old, Brooklyn) and Zhang Haojie (also known as "Kevin," 38 years old, Queens), were formally charged on July 16 in federal court in Brooklyn with conspiracy to commit money laundering.According to the allegations, the two managed a money laundering network of over ten people in Queens and Brooklyn from 2020 to 2022, using approximately 45 shell companies and 140 business bank accounts to transfer at least $43 million in proceeds from "pig butchering" investment scams to accounts in China. The "pig butchering" scam contacts victims through social media or instant messaging software, gaining their trust with false high-return investment opportunities before absconding with their money. This case is being jointly investigated by Homeland Security Investigations (HSI), the FBI, IRS-CI, and the U.S. Postal Inspection Service. If convicted, both defendants face a maximum of 20 years in prison.

According to BFM News, the Johor state government of Malaysia has requested the federal government to investigate the Network School, founded by former Coinbase Chief Technology Officer Balaji Srinivasan, due to allegations that some Israeli citizens participated in the project using third-country passports. The Johor state government has asked the Ministry of Home Affairs and relevant law enforcement and security agencies to verify the identities, nationalities, and entry purposes of the individuals involved, and to investigate whether the operation of Network School requires registration or approval under Malaysian law.At the same time, authorities will also review whether the project complies with relevant regulations regarding site permits, building usage, land use, accommodation operations, and commercial activities. If any violations are found, actions will be taken in accordance with the law. It is understood that Network School is located in Forest City, Malaysia, founded by Balaji Srinivasan, and is a private residential community built based on his "Network State" concept, with membership fees starting at $1,500 per month, offering services such as accommodation, dining, fitness, and shared office space.

Citigroup Research stated in the U.S. Economic Weekly published on July 2 that the U.S. non-farm payroll data for June showed a significant weakening, strongly refuting the necessity for interest rate hikes. Citigroup believes that several factors that previously supported a hawkish stance, including rising oil prices, accelerated wage growth, and core PCE above target, have gradually faded, stating that "the reasons for rate hikes have disappeared."Data shows that in June, the U.S. non-farm payrolls added only 57,000 jobs, far below expectations, and the data for the previous two months was revised down by a total of 74,000 jobs. After revision, the average monthly growth of non-farm payrolls over the past three months has dropped to about 111,000, a significant decline from over 180,000 before the revision. The unemployment rate in June fell from 4.296% to 4.189%, but Citigroup believes this is mainly due to the labor participation rate dropping from 61.8% to 61.5%. If the participation rate remains unchanged, the unemployment rate would actually rise to above 4.5%.Regarding inflation, Citigroup stated that multiple factors are collectively suppressing price pressures. Oil prices have fallen back to pre-conflict levels, and July CPI and PCE data are expected to show a month-on-month decline; further slowing of housing rents will also drag down core CPI and core PCE. In addition, the revision of the core PCE methodology will adopt a more reasonable price adjustment approach for AI-related goods. Citigroup estimates that the year-on-year growth rate of the revised core PCE may be adjusted down by 20 to 30 basis points, which will be officially reflected in September.Citigroup maintains its baseline forecast, expecting the Federal Reserve to remain on hold at the FOMC meetings in July and September, with the first rate cut of 25 basis points occurring at the meeting on October 28, followed by another 25 basis points cut in December, bringing the federal funds rate range down to 3.0% to 3.25% by the end of the year. Citigroup also expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates three more times in 2027, with a terminal rate range of 2.75% to 3.0%.

Citigroup has lowered the target price for Strategy from $260 to $136, but maintains a buy rating. The firm has reduced its 12-month Bitcoin price forecast to $81,800, citing lower expected returns for Bitcoin.Citigroup stated that the updated capital plan for Strategy enhances liquidity and should provide the company with more time for stability.

Citigroup has lowered its 12-month Bitcoin forecast from $112,000 to $82,000 due to negative fund flows in crypto ETFs.

According to a report by Reuters, the latest data released by Citi shows that driven by the demand for companies to cut AI spending, the market adoption rate of low-cost open-source models is rapidly increasing. In June of this year, the proportion of open-source model Tokens processed on the AI aggregation platform OpenRouter surged from 34% in January to 65%.Citi specifically pointed out in the report that the cost difference is a core factor driving this trend. The data shows that some Chinese open-source large models are continuously narrowing the performance gap with leading models in the United States, while their charges are as low as 18 cents per million Tokens, whereas the average charge for leading large models in the industry is about 4 dollars, resulting in a cost difference of over 20 times.

CITIC Construction Investment Research Report points out that the following factors will determine the trend of the third quarter market: In terms of fundamentals, AI computing power remains at a high level of prosperity, with mid-year performance and overseas financial reports worth paying attention to. At the same time, since April, under pressure from the macro economy, the economic measures from the Politburo meeting in July are quite important; In terms of liquidity, external disturbances have increased, while internal conditions remain neutral; In terms of risk appetite, geopolitical events and the listing of industry giants will cause short-term fluctuations in the market. Considering the global tech stock correlation effect, major overseas computing powers such as Japan, South Korea, and the United States also need to be continuously monitored.In terms of industry allocation, although the logic of AI computing power remains unchanged, volatility has intensified. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing highs and to position during pullbacks; lithium batteries are expected to welcome a peak season, and energy storage demand continues to warm up, while new energy presents opportunities for phased valuation recovery; dividends are expected to rebound from oversold conditions, with relatively high cost-performance ratios. Key areas to focus on: banks, coal, public utilities, AI, optical modules, storage, chips, industrial metals, lithium battery materials (VC), etc.

According to Jinshi reports, Citic Securities research report states that the US dollar index has rapidly strengthened recently, causing gold prices to fall below the $4,000 per ounce mark. The market's easing concerns about inflation have not led to a decline in the dollar. The research report points out that the political "re-dollarization" can explain the recent strength of the dollar, but the more important driving factor is the expectation of tightening dollar liquidity. It is expected that the dollar index will have support within the year, but it will be difficult to sustain a rise; the next US inflation data may become a catalyst for the market to adjust trading strategies.

According to Jinshi reports, Citigroup expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in October, December 2026, and January 2027, previously predicting rate cuts in September, October, and December of this year.

According to Caixin, Citigroup has raised Micron Technology's target price from $840 to $1200.

According to Jinshi reports, CITIC Construction Investment pointed out that SpaceX landed on NASDAQ with a valuation of $1.75 trillion, raising $75 billion, and its market value surpassed $2 trillion on the first day, becoming the seventh largest technology company in the world and creating the largest IPO in history. Its three major businesses: Starlink, reusable rockets, and space AI validate the commercial closed loop, accelerating the commercialization process of the space economy. In 2026, several liquid rockets in our country will have intensive maiden flights and recovery tests, which are expected to significantly reduce launch costs and accelerate constellation construction. It is recommended to pay attention to:Rocket segment: high-barrier fields such as engines and rocket body structures;Satellite segment: payloads, antennas, and laser communication terminals;Ground equipment: civilian terminals and mobile direct connection technology;Operational services: companies with scarce license qualifications.

According to the Wall Street Journal, Citigroup will launch a blockchain platform that allows wealthy and institutional clients to trade tokenized shares of private company equity, initially open only to overseas investors. Citigroup stated that it has negotiated with several large private companies for participation. As star private companies like SpaceX and Anthropic delay their IPOs, Wall Street's demand for private equity allocation is rising. Citigroup previously predicted that by 2030, the market size for tokenized securities could reach approximately $4 trillion, and has already piloted the tokenization of customer deposits for cross-border settlements through Token Services. Recently, it also joined a tokenized deposit network alliance led by JPMorgan, aiming to achieve year-round settlement of large client funds.

According to the Bangkok Post, Thai police raided a scam base in the Saraphi district of Chiang Mai province, arresting 10 Chinese citizens and seizing 67 mobile phones, 7 iPads, and 13 laptops.

According to Jinshi reports, Citigroup stated that the profit growth brought by AI construction is expected to drive the S&P 500 index to break through the 8,000-point mark in 2026. The bank raised its year-end target for the S&P 500 index to 8,100 points, which represents an increase of over 9.5% compared to last Friday's closing price. Strategist Cronat predicts that the S&P 500's earnings per share will reach $350 in 2026 and rise to $400 in 2027. He pointed out that despite the potential volatility caused by uncertainties related to the US-Iran war, inflation, and interest rate paths, AI spending remains the focus for investors.

According to Jinshi reports, Citigroup strategists have raised the year-end target for the S&P 500 index from 7,700 points to 8,100 points.