CITIC Securities: Strong non-farm payrolls offset Waller's remarks, market awaits CPI

CITIC Securities research report states that in August 2026, the number of new non-farm jobs in the United States was significantly higher than expected, with notable contributions from the leisure hotel and healthcare industries, and a rebound in local government education positions. In the private sector, the goods-producing sector added jobs for the sixth consecutive month, possibly reflecting the demand for data center construction in the United States. The decline in employment in the finance and information technology sectors reflects the impact of AI.

The unemployment rate remained at 4.1%, rounded to two decimal places as 4.14%, and the labor force participation rate rebounded from 61.4% to 61.6%, while the continuous decline in participation rates for those aged 45-54 still needs to be monitored. The strong non-farm data in August and the dovish remarks from Federal Reserve Governor Waller offset each other, leading the market to reprice the probability of a rate hike in September at around 60%. The focus will next be on the August CPI to be released on September 11.