Non-farm payrolls will be announced tonight, and the market expects an increase of only 56,000 people in August

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the August non-farm payroll report tonight, with the market expecting an increase of only 56,000 jobs and an unemployment rate remaining at 4.1%. The market generally believes that the U.S. job market is currently in a "stable but weak" state, and a weakening employment data may not directly prompt the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, with policy focus still on inflation trends.

J.P. Morgan's trading desk predicts that if job additions exceed 95,000, the S&P 500 index may drop by 0.5% to 1.25%; if job additions are only between 5,000 and 35,000, the S&P 500 index may rise by 0.25% to 0.75%. The market expects that this non-farm data will become an important variable affecting the Federal Reserve's September policy expectations and the short-term trend of U.S. stocks.

Recent statements from Federal Reserve officials indicate that the job market is currently not the focus of policy. Federal Reserve Governor Barr stated earlier this week that the employment situation is "stable," while Governor Waller said on Thursday that the employment condition is "satisfactory." This assessment does not imply that the job market is performing strongly, but it suggests that in the absence of further easing in inflation, the Federal Reserve may consider raising interest rates while trying to avoid impacting employment.