Bernstein: Robinhood's stock price has fallen over 20% this year, and a diversified product portfolio will offset some of the downside risks in the crypto bear market

According to TheBlock, Bernstein's analyst team stated in a report to clients that Robinhood (NASDAQ: HOOD) stock price has fallen over 20% year-to-date, down about 40% from its peak of $89.91. This decline is partly attributed to the overall slump in the cryptocurrency market, which currently accounts for about 21% of the company's total revenue.

The analysts outlined three bearish scenarios:

1. Assuming Bitcoin price drops to around $60,000 and remains sluggish for the next couple of years, the expected earnings per share in 2027 would be about $3.10, with a potential stock price range of $46 to $61.

2. Assuming Bitcoin price drops to $60,000 but rebounds in the second half of 2026. The expected earnings per share in 2027 would be about $3.50, with a potential stock price range of $70 to $88.

3. In the most pessimistic scenario, trading volumes for cryptocurrencies and stock options would decline by 50% within two years, with the expected earnings per share for the company in 2027 being $2.40, and a potential stock price range of $24 to $36.

However, the analysts noted that currently, Robinhood's non-trading revenue accounts for about 43% of total revenue, with a compound annual growth rate of about 29% over the past two years, and its broader business portfolio helps offset the weakness in cryptocurrency trading activity.