What kind of temperature difference code for US stocks in 2026 is hidden in a "top student" Q1 new product list?

Written by: DaiDai, Frank, MaiTong MSX Research Institute

Q1 has quickly passed, have you made money in the repeatedly fluctuating market?

In 2026, the U.S. stock market has clearly switched to another state. Over the past three months, weighted stocks like the "Seven Sisters" have generally seen double-digit pullbacks, and the index has also been weak, but the profit-making effect has not disappeared. From energy to optical communication, from military aerospace to AI hardware, Q1 has seen multiple lines running in parallel and rotating quickly. This change has directly transmitted to the supply side of trading, and has been validated at the data level in MaiTong MSX's latest Q1 review.

Based on this, MaiTong MSX has compiled a list of new tokens and internal data for the first quarter, hoping to serve as a cross-sectional sample to observe the main lines of U.S. stock trading in 2026, helping Web3 and U.S. stock investors to see the real temperature differences in this year's U.S. stock trading more clearly.

1. Overview of Q1 U.S. Stock Main Lines with an Average Increase of 37%

In the first quarter of 2026, the MSX platform launched a total of 39 new U.S. stock tokens, spanning from January 2 to March 13, covering individual U.S. stocks, industry ETFs, and macro tools, focusing on five main lines: military aerospace, energy resources, AI hardware, optical communication, and regional allocation.

From the results, this batch of tokens performed impressively. As of the time of writing, only 1 of the 39 tokens recorded a negative return (CRDO.M, -7.81%), while the rest had positive returns.

Among them, there were 4 tokens with an increase of over 100% this year: AXTI.M (+318.59%), AAOI.M (+174.70%), LITE.M (+117.58%), and LWLG.M (+108.95%), all concentrated in the AI hardware and optical communication lines. Additionally, there were 7 tokens with an increase of over 50%, accounting for nearly one-fifth.

If we look at the overall distribution, the simple average increase of the 39 tokens was +37.6% (the 20th token, HII.M), with a median increase of +20.3%. The mean is significantly higher than the median, indicating that the return distribution of this batch of assets shows a clear right-skewed characteristic, meaning that most tokens provided stable and considerable positive returns, while a few high-elasticity tokens pulled up strong returns at the top.

Looking closely, 14 tokens (35.9%) had an increase between 10% and 30%, which is the most concentrated range, forming the backbone of the entire asset pool, providing stable and predictable market Beta, making it the ballast of the new launch portfolio.

Extending upwards, there were 6 tokens (15.4%) in the 30% to 50% range, 4 tokens (10.3%) in the 50% to 100% range, and 4 tokens (10.3%) above 100%. The total of these three high-return ranges means that over one-third of the tokens had an increase of over 30% this year, and this result precisely comes from the correct early layout in the AI hardware and optical communication industry lines (detailed in the next chapter).

It is worth noting the data at both ends of the tail and head.

On one hand, there was only 1 token with a negative return (CRDO.M, -7.81%), accounting for 2.6%, which can almost be ignored, especially in Q1 where styles switched rapidly and sectors rotated frequently. Such a positive return coverage itself indicates that the stock selection direction was overall quite accurate.

On the other hand, the 4 doubling stocks, AXTI.M (+318.59%), AAOI.M (+174.70%), LITE.M (+117.58%), and LWLG.M (+108.95%), were all concentrated in the AI hardware and optical communication lines, which is no coincidence. This further illustrates that the real difference in returns is not from "casting a wide net," but from first identifying the right direction and then finding the most elastic expressions within the segmented chain.

In other words, the most noteworthy aspect of this Q1 new launch list is not just the overall good profit-making effect, but it presents a very typical structure: the backbone tokens provide relatively stable Beta, while a few high-elasticity tokens contribute excess returns. The coexistence of these two types of assets forms a truly "honor roll" report card.

2. AI Hardware and Optical Communication: Why Are They the Strongest Dual Main Lines in Q1?

Looking at the average returns of the five main lines, AI hardware and optical communication undoubtedly constitute the two strongest offensive main lines in Q1.

Among them, the 9 tokens in the AI hardware direction had an average increase of 68.4%. Even after excluding the extreme increase of AXTI.M (+318.59%), the average still reached 37.1%, indicating that the excess returns of this line are not supported by a single dark horse, but rather that the entire segmented industrial chain experienced a relatively systematic realization in Q1.

This point is actually crucial. It means that the market's trading of AI is no longer limited to the superficial narrative of large models or a few super leaders, but is continuing to spread to the more fundamental semiconductor equipment, testing equipment, manufacturing links, and industrial chain support. In other words, funds are beginning to shift from "buying imagination" to "buying realization paths," which is precisely why the AI hardware chain achieved higher win rates and stronger elasticity in Q1.

Following closely, the optical communication direction had 8 tokens with an average increase of 64.6%, and the strength of this sector does not entirely rely on a single extreme value to lift it, but rather presents a state of multiple points blooming, with a more uniform distribution—tokens like AAOI.M (+174.70%), LITE.M (+117.58%), LWLG.M (+108.95%), and CIEN.M (+74.81%) have all strengthened successively.

This essentially reflects that as the construction of AI data centers accelerates, the demand for optical interconnects, optical modules, network links, and related infrastructure is experiencing concentrated release, confirming the comprehensive explosion of demand for optical interconnects from AI data centers.

Looking at it together, if AI hardware represents "computing power realization," then optical communication represents "how data is truly delivered after the expansion of computing power." In 2026, as AI infrastructure gradually transitions from concept to engineering implementation, the importance of the latter is clearly rising rapidly.

In contrast, the energy resources direction had 8 tokens with an average increase of 26.7%. Although not as impressive as the previous two, it remains quite robust, with different sub-sectors like oil and gas, uranium, rare earths, and precious metals each having independent driving logic.

They are not the type of main line that explodes at a single point, but rather the most dispersed theme in the entire asset pool, yet the strongest in resilience, supported by the continuous fermentation of multiple macro logics such as inflation, geopolitics, supply chain restructuring, and resource security.

As for the military aerospace and allocation tools lines, their average increases were 9.6% and 8.2%, respectively, seemingly lagging behind the top three main lines, but this does not mean they are "underperforming." After all, both play completely different roles in the portfolio:

• The military aerospace tokens are event-driven, with return releases relying on the rhythm of geopolitical conflicts, budget changes, or policy catalysts, and do not inherently possess linear upward properties;
• The allocation tools direction includes regional ETFs from Vietnam, Japan, South Korea, Brazil, as well as U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasury tools, whose core value lies not in pursuing extreme increases, but in providing broader market expressions and position balancing tools;

In a sense, the allocation tools line, with the most tokens and the lowest average, further illustrates that MSX did not focus solely on the hottest tracks to pile up elasticity when building the asset framework, but has always retained sufficient allocation elasticity and hedging space alongside aggressiveness.

This is also MSX's consistent logic for selecting new U.S. stocks and investments—not putting all chips on the hottest main line, but consciously layering between high-elasticity tokens and allocation tools, allowing for the coexistence of offensive, allocation, and defensive functions.

3. What Is the True Logic of Stock Selection Investment?

If we only look at the results in reverse, this Q1 new launch list can certainly be simply summarized as "accurate selection."

But more important than the results is the underlying methodology, namely whether an asset can be included on the platform depends not only on whether it will rise in the short term, but on whether it can represent a viewpoint that can be continuously traded, combined, and switched with market rotations.

In fact, the distribution of new launches over time reveals clues. MSX's progress in Q1 was not a one-time rollout, but clearly had the characteristic of dynamically following market stages:

• The new launches in January focused on military aerospace, energy resources, regional ETFs, power equipment, and semiconductor equipment, laying the foundational framework related to macro, geopolitics, manufacturing, and resource security;
• In February, there was a clear shift towards deep diving into the segmented chain of AI infrastructure, with a focus on optical communication, interconnects, network security, and more elastic semiconductor varieties;
• In March, further additions included agriculture and materials ETFs, continuing to improve the optical communication and semiconductor landscape, while also incorporating U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasury tools, allowing the entire asset framework to gradually extend from an "offensive pool" to a toolbox with switching capabilities;

This timing rhythm itself indicates that MaiTong MSX's stock selection for new launches does not consist of a static list, but rather a set of asset frameworks that dynamically update with changes in market main lines.

Looking at specific tokens, the intent of this viewpoint expression becomes even clearer.

For example, COP.M and SLB.M represent not just traditional energy stocks, but a combination expression of oil prices, capital expenditures, and geopolitical risks; CCJ.M and USAR.M encompass not just resource price fluctuations, but the long-term themes of strategic resource security and supply chain restructuring; LITE.M, CIEN.M, FN.M, and AAOI.M correspond to the industrial logic of "interconnect first" under the backdrop of AI data center upgrades; while macro tools like UUP.M and IEF.M further fulfill the position management needs under macro environments like a strong dollar and interest rate defense.

From this perspective, what is truly selected for new launches is not just the stock tokens or ETF tokens themselves, but a kind of market judgment that can be traded, combined, and rotated.

In Conclusion

If we place Q1 2026 in a longer cycle, it is clear that the market is no longer satisfied with the "chasing hot trends" logic driven by a single narrative.

Whether it is military aerospace, strategic resources, AI infrastructure, or regional allocation, U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasury tools, what funds truly need is a set of asset expression systems that can freely switch in different market environments.

In this sense, MSX's precise new launch actions in Q1 are not just a routine expansion of products, but are gradually building a cross-theme, cross-style, and cross-cycle asset framework around the evolution of the current market main lines, creating a more realistic observation sample of market structure for everyone:

Which directions are worth early layout? Which segmented links have higher elasticity? Which tools can take on allocation and defensive functions when volatility arrives?

I hope this provides a perspective worth considering.