Bitget UEX Daily Report | US-Iran Negotiation Discrepancies Widen; Trump Threatens to Block the Strait; Oil Prices Surge, Gold and Bitcoin Adjust (April 13, 2026)

# 1. Hot News

Federal Reserve Dynamics

New Federal Reserve News Agency Comments on March Core CPI Data

• The March core CPI rose by 0.196% month-on-month, slightly lower than market expectations, but the impact of energy prices may still manifest in the following months; the Federal Reserve hopes to see a decline in energy prices and build more confidence in the transmission effects of tariffs.
• Monthly data is insufficient to change the policy path, and institutions generally believe there is still uncertainty regarding a rate cut in December. Market impact: Short-term alleviation of inflation concerns, but geopolitical risks driving up energy prices may extend the Federal Reserve's wait-and-see period, negatively impacting high-valuation growth stocks.

International Commodities

US-Iran First Round of Negotiations Break Down, Spot Oil Market Out of Control

• Trump threatened that if Iran does not compromise, the US military will control the Strait of Hormuz to cut off Iranian oil exports; the two sides have sharp disagreements over control of the strait, 900 pounds of enriched uranium stock, and $27 billion in frozen funds, with negotiations ending fruitlessly after 21 hours.
• Spot Brent briefly touched a historical peak of $144, with a premium over futures exceeding $30; Asian refineries "grab oil regardless of price," and Macquarie warned that if the conflict continues into June, oil prices could exceed $200. Market impact: Supply concerns dominate, and the surge in oil prices directly raises global inflation expectations, benefiting the energy sector in the short term but suppressing risk assets, with gold, silver, and cryptocurrencies all retreating.

Macroeconomic Policy

Hong Kong Issues First Stablecoin Licenses, China Introduces Ten New Cross-Strait Exchange Policies

• HSBC and Standard Chartered have obtained stablecoin licenses in Hong Kong, opening new pathways for global financial institutions to enter the Asian stablecoin market; the Central Taiwan Office has released ten measures to promote the resumption of personal travel for residents of Shanghai and Fujian to Taiwan, as well as the normalization of water, electricity, gas, and bridge connections between Fujian and Kinmen.
• Foreign capital has seen a record outflow from the Indian stock market, with $18.84 billion withdrawn in the first three months of this year, exceeding the total for all of 2025. Market impact: Breakthroughs in stablecoin regulation favor traditional banks' crypto layouts, and cross-strait policies boost related cross-border concepts; the acceleration of capital outflow from India shifts global capital towards AI economies.

# 2. Market Review

Commodity & Forex Performance

• Spot Gold: Fell nearly 1.5% during the Asian session, breaking below $4700/ounce, as expectations of geopolitical easing and a slight strengthening of the dollar suppressed safe-haven demand.
• Spot Silver: Fell nearly 2.5% to $74 during the Asian session, supported by industrial demand but overall following the retreat.
• WTI Crude Oil: Increased by 8% to $104.6, driven by the breakdown of negotiations and restrictions on strait passage.
• Brent Crude Oil: Futures strengthened to $103, dominated by supply disruption risks.
• Dollar Index: Slightly retreated to 99.046, adjusting under improved risk appetite.

Cryptocurrency Performance

• BTC: Fell about 2.55% in 24 hours, currently around $71,185, under short-term pressure due to easing geopolitical risks and oil price impacts, continuing a volatile trend.
• ETH: Fell about 2.57% in 24 hours, currently around $2,202, retreating with the market but supported by continuous inflows into ETFs.
• Total Cryptocurrency Market Cap: Fell 2.7% in 24 hours to about $2.49 trillion.
• Market Liquidation Situation: Total liquidation of about $282 million in 24 hours, with long positions liquidated at $202 million.
• Bitget BTC/USDT Liquidation Map: Current price around $71,133 is at the edge of a liquidation zone, with long liquidations accumulating near $70,000; if it breaks below the $70,300--$70,500 range, it may trigger a round of accelerated declines. There is significant short liquidation accumulation in the $72,000--$73,000 range; if the price rebounds and breaks above $71,500, it may more easily trigger short squeezes for upward movement.

US Stock Index Performance

• Dow Jones: Fell 0.56% to 47,916.57 points, dragged down by the energy and banking sectors, slightly retreating after two weeks of rebounds.
• S&P 500: Fell 0.11% to 6,816.89 points, overall volatility narrowing, dominated by geopolitical uncertainty.
• Nasdaq: Rose 0.35% to 22,902.89 points, driven by a rebound in tech stocks, with the AI concept remaining strong.

Tech Giants Dynamics

As of last Friday's close:

• Apple (AAPL): $260.48, slightly fluctuating, supported by a recovery in smartphone market share.
• Microsoft (MSFT): $370.87, slightly down 0.59%, with steady demand for AI cloud services.
• Google (GOOGL): Around $317, with a moderate increase, stable search and cloud business.
• Amazon (AMZN): $238.38, up 2.02%, driven by e-commerce and AWS.
• Meta (META): $629.86, slightly retreated, with stable advertising revenue expectations.
• Tesla (TSLA): Slightly down to $348.95, with the energy transition narrative temporarily paused.
• Nvidia (NVDA): $188.63, up 2.57%.

Sector Movement Observation

Energy Sector rose over 2%

• Representative stocks: Energy giants generally rose, driven by concerns over supply disruptions following the breakdown of US-Iran negotiations, with spot oil premiums expanding.

Tech Hardware Sector rose over 1.5%

• Representative stocks: Broadcom rose 4.69%, AMD rose 3.55%, Nvidia rose 2.57%, driven by leaps in top model capabilities, with computing power demand growing three times faster than supply; Morgan Stanley states that market optimism is still underestimated.

# 3. In-Depth Stock Analysis

1. Anthropic - AI Field Fully Surpassing OpenAI

Event Overview: Anthropic's annualized revenue has surpassed $30 billion, exceeding OpenAI; private equity valuations and secondary market enthusiasm are both leading, while the latter's old stocks are ignored; in the enterprise sector, market share in code generation and other B-end markets far exceeds competitors, becoming a new focus in Silicon Valley. Market Interpretation: Institutions believe Anthropic is more competitive in enterprise-level AI applications, with continued capital favorability. Investment Insight: AI competition has entered a new stage, and companies focusing on B-end and safety compliance may have long-term advantages; it is recommended to pay attention to related industry chain targets.

2. HSBC, Standard Chartered - Hong Kong Stablecoin License Issued

Event Overview: The Hong Kong Monetary Authority has issued the first batch of stablecoin issuance licenses to HSBC and Standard Chartered's joint venture company Anchorpoint, opening a channel for traditional banks to enter crypto payments and settlements. Market Interpretation: Analysts believe this move marks Hong Kong's leading position in crypto regulation globally, likely attracting more institutional capital. Investment Insight: The integration of traditional finance and crypto is accelerating, and banks holding stablecoin licenses may gain an advantage in the Asian digital asset market.

3. JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, etc. - Bank Earnings Season Begins This Week

Event Overview: This week, JPM, WFC, BAC, C, MS, GS will release Q1 earnings, and Netflix will also announce results, with the market focusing on the impact of oil prices on bank asset quality. Market Interpretation: Institutions expect bank net interest margins to be under pressure but trading revenues to be strong, with earnings reports becoming a key test of market resilience. Investment Insight: Pay attention to stocks that exceed earnings expectations; high oil prices may benefit banks with significant energy credit exposure.

4. CoreWeave - AI Computing Power Demand Systematically Exceeds Supply

Event Overview: Morgan Stanley pointed out that global Token usage surged by 250% in three months, with computing power demand growth far exceeding Nvidia's supply, and the power gap for US data centers is expected to reach 55 gigawatts from 2025 to 2028. Market Interpretation: Institutions are raising AI infrastructure investment expectations, and related company valuations are likely to be reassessed. Investment Insight: AI hardware and energy bottlenecks coexist, and quality computing power suppliers still hold long-term allocation value.

# 4. Cryptocurrency Project Dynamics

1. Mike Selig, chairman of the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), stated in an interview that the agency will continue to defend its "exclusive regulatory authority" over prediction markets in court.

2. JPMorgan Chase will expand JPM Coin to the Canton Network through Kinexys in 2026, which currently processes over $350 billion in US Treasury repurchase settlements daily.

3. Delphi Digital analyzes that liquidity may become a negative factor for Bitcoin. February's PCE data showed that US consumers were already showing weakness before the impact of the Iran war data. Income contraction and nearly zero growth in real spending were observed. Subsequently, March CPI recorded 3.3%, with energy contributing three-quarters of the increase. The US Leading Economic Index (LEI) is declining, which leads actual yields by about six months. The last time this occurred was in 2022: tightening monetary policy met with energy shocks. That year, the correlation between Bitcoin and actual yields turned deeply negative.

4. Michael Saylor, co-founder of Strategy, posted on the X platform that the annualized breakeven yield of the company's Bitcoin holdings is about 2.05%. If Bitcoin's long-term growth rate exceeds this level, Strategy can indefinitely pay dividends without issuing more MSTR stock, with related data available for real-time tracking on the official website.

5. Data: Tokens such as CONX, ARB, and DBR will see large unlocks this week, with CONX unlocking valued at approximately $16.2 million.

# 5. Today's Market Calendar

Data Release Schedule

Important Event Forecast

• Bank Earnings Season: This week, JPM, WFC, BAC, C, MS, GS, and NFLX will successively announce Q1 results------pay attention to the impact of oil prices on profits and AI capital expenditure guidance.
• Geopolitical Progress: Follow-up negotiation dynamics between the US and Iran and the situation of passage through the Strait of Hormuz------oil prices and risk assets' barometer.

Institutional Views:

Well-known investment bank analysts generally believe that although the breakdown of US-Iran negotiations has not triggered a full-scale conflict, the supply risks in the Strait of Hormuz have pushed the crude oil market into a "real pricing" mode, with spot premiums reflecting real shortages; short-term oil prices are likely to rise to the $100-110 range, and inflation pressures may delay the Federal Reserve's rate cut pace. Morgan Stanley emphasizes that the supply-demand gap for AI computing power is systematically expanding, with a projected power shortage of 55 gigawatts for US data centers from 2025 to 2028; the non-linear leap in top model capabilities will continue to drive technology stock valuation expansion. In the cryptocurrency market, institutional inflows and breakthroughs in stablecoin regulation provide support, with continuous positive inflows into BTC/ETH ETFs indicating resilience in institutional demand; geopolitical easing combined with the AI narrative is expected to push total market capitalization back to high levels. Overall, the market is shifting from "expected pricing" to "real pricing," with funds concentrating on AI hardware, resources, cyclical price increases, and high dividend yield sectors, leading to increased short-term volatility but unchanged long-term trends.

Disclaimer: The above content is organized by AI search, with human verification for publication, and does not constitute any investment advice.