Bitget Research Institute Weekly Report (Excerpt): The huge IPO of SpaceX is coming, will the market be "bled dry"?

Market Hotspot Dynamics:

1. A wave of super IPOs is set to land on the US stock market: SpaceX S-1 has been disclosed, with the earliest listing expected in June (valuation $1.5-2.0T). Deutsche Bank estimates that the maximum IPO impact on the market is only about 1%; historically, issuance waves are more like a lagging factor in a bull market, and IPOs will not lead to a significant market decline but rather lay the foundation for future bull market trends. The explosion of the Blue Origin rocket triggered a 43% flash crash in Hyperliquid SpaceX contracts within 7 minutes, leading to over 400 retail investors being liquidated, while Bitget focuses on Pre-IPO spot assets, engaging in market participation for spot/contract arbitrage, enhancing market depth and effectively controlling pin risk.

2. The differentiation of stablecoins is intensifying: USDGO has grown 547% since March, driven by compliance endorsements attracting capital; USDe has shrunk by 25.5%, with marginal demand for algorithmic stablecoins weakening. USDGO offers a higher base yield on Bitget, while also serving as an asset for IPO Prime subscriptions, with strong market demand, firmly anchored at 1 US dollar.

3. In May, BTC fell 3.4%, with 18 out of 22 quantitative strategies outperforming holding positions, averaging alpha +1.93%. The OBV volume-price divergence strategy topped with +7.41%.

Assets to Watch: BTC, XLM, PSG (Champions League catalyst), HYPE (reaching ATH), AVGO (6/3 earnings report), NG (Natural Gas).

I. Impact of Giant IPOs on the Market

SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic are clustering for major IPOs. SpaceX S-1 has been disclosed, with a listing in the second week of June, a valuation of $1.5-2.0T, and fundraising of $75 billion, the largest in history. The issuance wave itself has a mild impact on the market (about 1%), and historically, the median return of the S&P 500 three months after an issuance wave is about 8%, exceeding 20% over 12 months (as shown in the above image, the yellow area indicates historical IPO issuance wave periods, during which the S&P 500 maintained an upward trend in most IPO waves).

Demand remains solid: household cash balances are above the trend at $3.3 trillion, Q1 earnings growth is the strongest in 20 years, and buybacks remain high. However, there are hidden dangers in the position structure—overall stock positions are at the 53rd percentile, while large-cap tech is as high as the 93rd percentile. In terms of capital flow, tech funds inflowed $9 billion, the largest in seven months, while emerging markets in Europe and the US have seen outflows for six consecutive weeks. The impact of IPOs will not be evenly distributed but will resonate in the most crowded tech sector.

II. Hyperliquid vs Bitget Pre-IPO Contract Liquidity

On May 29, the Blue Origin New Glenn rocket's static fire test exploded, evaporating about $8 billion in market value from the space sector, with panic quickly spreading to SpaceX Pre-IPO assets. The Hyperliquid SPACEX contract plummeted from $2,286 to $1,299 ( -43% ) within 7 minutes, leading to forced liquidations of over 400 wallets (liquidation amount $1.51 million).

Bitget SPCXUSDT adopts a differentiated structure: focusing on preSPCX spot tokens, with spot assets as anchors, resulting in better liquidity in the contract market. Market makers can hedge through spot inventory, effectively suppressing pin risks in extreme market conditions. This "spot + contract" dual-layer structure demonstrates structural advantages in liquidity depth and price stability.

III. Stablecoin Growth Research

Since March 1, the growth trajectories of four stablecoins have diverged sharply. USDGO has grown 547% (from $50M to $323M), issued by Anchorage Digital Bank and distributed by OSL, which holds a license from the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission, creating strong capital siphoning through compliance endorsements. USDT and USDC have shown steady growth ( +2.7% / +0.9% ), collectively dominating the market. USDe has shrunk by -25.5%, and in a declining environment for BTC / ETH, the negative funding rate has compressed the returns of delta-neutral strategies. In terms of price stability, USDT and USDC deviate by no more than 0.15%, while USDe remains in the range of $0.999 - $1.001, and USDGO has recently maintained a steady anchor at 1 US dollar, indicating higher market demand.

Bitget users holding USDGO in their accounts can automatically earn a daily yield of up to 4.3% APR without the need for staking or locking; additionally, by holding for 14 days through flash exchanges, they can receive a two-way slippage subsidy, achieving a 1:1 zero-loss exchange with USDT. USDGO can also serve as an asset for IPO Prime subscriptions, combining compliance and profitability.

IV. Monthly Report on Quantitative Strategies

In May, BTC fell from $76,490 to $73,876 ( -3.4% ), with 18 out of 22 strategies outperforming holding positions, averaging alpha +1.93%. The first tier ( alpha > 4% ): OBV volume-price divergence ( +7.41% ), traditional MACD ( +7.04% ), Bollinger Bands ( +7.00% ), Turtle Breakout ( +4.98% ), ATR Breakout ( +4.96% ), VWAP mean reversion ( +4.44% ), order flow ( +4.07% ). Negative alpha strategies: BarUpDn ( -6.35% ), Outside Bar ( -4.49% ), with overly strong directionality leading to frequent false signals in the absence of a trending environment.

OBV (On-Balance Volume) is a cumulative volume indicator; when the closing price rises, the day's volume is added, and when it falls, it is subtracted, based on the core idea that "volume precedes price." In a lookback window of 30 five-minute K-lines:

• 1. When the price makes a new low but OBV does not also make a new low, it is identified as a bullish divergence, and a full position is bought;

• 2. When the price makes a new high but OBV does not also make a new high, it is identified as a bearish divergence, and a full position is sold.

Optimal risk-reward: VWAP Reversion (Sharpe 1.76), ATR Breakout ( alpha +4.96%, with a drawdown of only -2.64%). It is recommended to prioritize mean reversion and classic technical strategies.

This article is excerpted from exclusive research reports provided weekly to VIP users. For the full text, please upgrade to VIP and visit the official website for details. https://www.bitget.cloud/zh-CN/news/detail/12560605437591

Disclaimer: This report is for research reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. Cryptocurrency asset prices are highly volatile, and investors should assess risks independently.