Bitget UEX Daily Report｜Inflation slowdown boosts market risk appetite, AI sector rebounds across the board; Trump cancels the Strait transit fee, the U.S. resumes port blockade against Iran

# 1. Hot News

Federal Reserve Dynamics

June CPI Year-on-Year Drops to 3.5% Below Expectations, Market Risk Appetite Rises

• The U.S. June CPI year-on-year increase fell to 3.5%, a month-on-month decrease of 0.4%, below market expectations, with core inflation also moderate; inflation remains above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, but signs of cooling are evident.
• Key Points: Federal Reserve Chairman nominee Kevin Warsh reiterated the commitment to the 2% inflation anchor during congressional hearings, emphasizing "data dependence" and increased policy transparency; overseas holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds rose to $9.37 trillion, the second highest in history in May.
• Market Impact: Short-term alleviation of concerns over aggressive rate hikes benefits growth stocks and risk assets, but geopolitical factors may create new disturbances to the inflation path, and Fed policy will remain cautious.

International Commodities

U.S.-Iran Conflict Escalates, Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz Rise, Oil Supply Risks Heat Up

• The Trump administration announced the end of the U.S.-Iran ceasefire, with U.S. military strikes on Iranian targets and a renewed blockade of ports, canceling the 20% transit fee plan for the Strait of Hormuz, positioning itself as the "guardian" of the global energy corridor.
• Key Points: About 20% of global oil transport passes through this strait; Trump stated that actions will continue until "enough," with strikes on energy facilities potentially saved for last; Iran has not yet responded officially.
• Market Impact: Short-term increase in oil prices and volatility in the energy sector, raising global inflation and supply chain uncertainty; safe-haven assets like gold receive some support, but a stronger dollar may create a hedge.

Macroeconomic Policy

Warsh Hearing Emphasizes Policy Independence and Transparency, U.S. and U.K. Launch Transatlantic Stablecoin Regulatory Cooperation

• Kevin Warsh reiterated the independence of monetary policy, committing to promote institutional reforms to eliminate the hidden tax burden of inflation, avoiding premature signals on interest rate paths, and enhancing predictability.
• Key Points: The U.S.-U.K. "Future Markets Transatlantic Working Group" released recommendations for stablecoin regulatory cooperation, establishing clear pathways and eliminating barriers; supporting cross-border tokenized asset testing and regulatory coordination.
• Market Impact: Strengthening the credibility of the Federal Reserve, providing short-term support for the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields; the implementation of a stablecoin framework may benefit crypto compliance adoption and institutional capital inflows.

# 2. Market Review

Commodity & Forex Performance (Real-Time Updates)

• Spot Gold: $4,057/ounce, 24h +0.12%
• Spot Silver: $58.93/ounce, 24h +0.41%
• WTI Crude Oil: $79.54/barrel, 24h +1.09%
• Brent Crude Oil: $86.03/barrel, 24h +1.53%
• Dollar Index (DXY): 100.824, 24h -0.12%

Driver Analysis: The June CPI cooling boosts risk appetite, but the escalation of U.S.-Iran geopolitical conflict becomes a new variable for the market. Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz raise concerns about oil supply disruptions, providing short-term support for oil prices. Gold is caught between safe-haven demand and a stronger dollar with rising yields, maintaining narrow fluctuations in the latest quotes. Institutional consensus suggests that if the conflict continues, energy inflation may delay the Federal Reserve's easing pace, with DXY receiving short-term support while precious metals face some pressure. Asset correlation shows a clear divergence between risk assets and safe-haven varieties, necessitating close attention to the conflict's impact on supply chains and inflation expectations in the short term.

Cryptocurrency Performance

• BTC: $64,815, +3.87%
• ETH: $1,880, +5.4%
• Total Cryptocurrency Market Cap: $2.25 trillion, 24h +3.5%
• Market Liquidation Situation: 24h total liquidation $361 million, short liquidation $294 million
• Bitget BTC/USDT Liquidation Map: Current BTC price is about $64,800, with a dense short liquidation area in the $65,300--$66,300 range, especially around $65,500 where liquidation pressure is significant. If it continues to break through, it may trigger a new round of short squeezes and push prices further up. Below, there is a large accumulation of long liquidations in the $63,200--$64,200 range; if the price falls below the $64,000 support, it may trigger a chain liquidation of longs; however, from the cumulative liquidation distribution, the short-term market's liquidation magnet effect still slightly favors the upside.

• Spot ETF Net Inflow/Outflow: BTC spot ETF saw a net outflow of about $425 million yesterday, with a current 24-hour dynamic net inflow of $21 million.

Driver Analysis: The U.S. CPI data for June released on July 14 exceeded expectations for cooling (YoY 3.5% vs. expected 3.8%, MoM -0.4% vs. expected -0.1%, Core YoY 2.6% below expectations), directly boosting market risk appetite and driving BTC and ETH to rebound simultaneously. ETH's increase is significantly stronger than BTC's, indicating a rotation of funds towards altcoins.

Recently, BTC spot ETFs have continued to see net outflows, reflecting profit-taking and the clearing of leveraged positions by some investors, but prices have shown strong resilience. The risk-averse sentiment brought by the U.S.-Iran tensions has created some disturbances for crypto, but the improvement in macro liquidity expectations remains the dominant factor. Institutional views generally suggest that in an environment of rising risk appetite, the correlation between BTC and U.S. stocks will strengthen.

Technically, the market is currently in a critical range, with volume confirmation and ETF fund flows becoming key indicators for short-term trends. Leverage use should still be cautious, and it is recommended to focus on subsequent macro data releases and the impact of geopolitical developments on market sentiment.

U.S. Stock Index Performance

• Dow Jones: 52,508.27 points (+0.02%)
• S&P 500: 7,543.59 points (+0.38%)
• Nasdaq: 26,107.01 points (+0.90%)

Tech Giants Dynamics

• NVDA: $211.80 (+4.06%)
• AAPL: $314.86 (-0.77%)
• MSFT: $387.15 (-1.55%)
• GOOGL: $359.51 (+1.99%)
• AMZN: $247.49 (+0.07%)
• META: $661.04 (+0.66%)
• TSLA: $396.18 (+0.36%)

Performance Summary and Driver Analysis: The U.S. tech sector generally followed the Nasdaq's rebound, with AI and storage themes performing prominently, but individual stocks showed significant divergence. Core AI stocks like NVDA, GOOGL, and META led the gains, benefiting from sustained infrastructure demand and institutional allocation; MU and SK Hynix-related concepts surged, reflecting high prosperity in HBM and high-performance memory. AAPL and MSFT faced relative pressure, partly due to company-specific events or profit-taking pressures. Software service stocks like IBM plummeted due to earnings warnings, highlighting the differences in the pace of AI capital expenditure conversion. Overall, the sector trend is driven by the long-term narrative of AI, but short-term impacts from geopolitical and macro uncertainties are evident, with valuation pressures manifesting in some high-priced stocks, and differentiation factors (supply chain cooperation vs. execution risk) becoming key.

Sector Movement Observation

Storage and Semiconductor Sectors Rise Over 5-27%

• Representative Stocks: SK Hynix +27% (trading at $193.92, significantly above Korean stock prices), MU + about 5%
• Driving Factors: Explosive growth in demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) from AI data centers, with institutions like SemiAnalysis releasing positive reports, expecting supply chain companies to exceed performance expectations; combined with a rebound in U.S. stock risk appetite and capital inflows driving the sector's explosion.

# 3. In-Depth Analysis of U.S. Stocks

1. SK Hynix - AI Memory Demand Explosion Boosts Stock Price

Event Overview: The stock price of the U.S. related trading code soared over 27% in a single day, reaching a new high of $193.92, with a premium exceeding 45% compared to its Korean listing. SemiAnalysis released a bullish report, expecting strong HBM sales driven by AI; ADR options were officially listed, with Piper Sandler and others predicting short-term upward opportunities, and Korean stocks surged over 10% in early trading. Market Interpretation: Institutions generally believe that the capital expenditure cycle for AI data centers is still in its early stages, directly benefiting the storage segment, and the current upward trend reflects a resonance between fundamentals and capital; the high premium shows the U.S. market's enthusiasm for the AI theme. Investment Insight: The AI infrastructure theme has strong sustainability, but valuations are at high levels; it is advisable to pay attention to subsequent earnings realization and geopolitical supply chain risks, as short-term volatility may increase.

2. IBM - Earnings Warning Triggers Concerns Over Software Services

Event Overview: Second-quarter earnings warning led to a record drop of about 25% in stock price. Weakness in the Data & Automation business stems from internal execution issues, with Goldman Sachs warning that AI capital expenditure may lead to widespread downward pressure on software services. Market Interpretation: Analysts point out that AI spending prioritizes hardware and infrastructure, with software conversion pacing slower than expected, exposing execution risks; the market worries that a "software bear market" may spread to more tech service stocks. Investment Insight: The AI transformation of tech giants is not smooth sailing; selecting companies with clear paths, execution capabilities, and cash flow support is more defensive.

3. NVIDIA (NVDA) - Global AI Factory Cooperation Continues to Advance

Event Overview: Considering collaboration with Mitsubishi Heavy Industries to provide AI data center cooling systems and energy management equipment; partnering with SK Group to advance the Japan AI factory project (2028-2029), defining the next-generation data center as an "AI factory." Market Interpretation: Institutions believe this move strengthens NVDA's global leadership position and moat in the AI infrastructure ecosystem, with supply chain cooperation expanding benefiting the long-term growth narrative. Investment Insight: NVDA's core growth story is solid, and a pullback may provide a layout window, but attention must be paid to valuations and geopolitical impacts on the semiconductor supply chain.

4. Apple (AAPL) - On-device AI Technology Progress Boosts Long-term Narrative

Event Overview: Evaluating AI model compression technology to run a 27 billion parameter large model on the iPhone, early discussions with PrismML; preparations for Siri upgrades are advancing, with the iOS 27 public beta release emphasizing privacy protection, competing with OpenAI/Anthropic. Market Interpretation: Analysts are optimistic about Apple's hardware + privacy advantage in the generative AI competition, with on-device capabilities potentially becoming a new growth point, accelerating the pace of catching up. Investment Insight: The implementation of AI functions on the hardware side may catalyze valuation reassessment; attention should be paid to product launches and ecosystem cooperation progress, highlighting long-term allocation value.

# 4. Market & Project Dynamics

1. Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart posted on the X platform that Morgan Stanley has submitted updated filings for its Ethereum ETF and Solana ETF, with codes MSSE and MSOL respectively, both with a fee rate of 0.14%, and the launch time may be approaching.

2. U.S. Senators Chris Murphy, Chris Van Hollen, and Jeff Merkley publicly opposed the "Clarity Act" at a Capitol Hill press conference, calling it "corrupt legislation" and focusing on former President Trump's personal profits from the crypto industry as a major warning. Van Hollen stated that the bill is "corrupt legislation that will cause significant harm."

3. Wall Street analysts' cautious sentiment towards Circle is rising. Mizuho downgraded Circle's rating from neutral to underperform, lowering the target price from $85 to $50, a drop of over 41%; JPMorgan also downgraded earnings expectations for Circle and Coinbase on the same day. Mizuho believes that Open USD, supported by more than 140 companies including Visa, Mastercard, Stripe, BlackRock, and Coinbase, adopts a "penetrating" model that allocates almost all reserve earnings to distributors, which may force Circle to concede a larger share of reserve earnings to maintain competitiveness.

Mizuho also pointed out that Circle's revenue-sharing agreement with Coinbase will be renewed next month, with Coinbase as a founding member of Open USD likely to have a greater advantage in negotiations. JPMorgan cited the new agreement between Circle and Hyperliquid as an example, stating that it reflects the competitive landscape where Circle and Coinbase are forced to compete for optimal revenue sharing to retain partners. Bernstein and William Blair remain optimistic about Circle, believing its liquidity, regulatory first-mover advantage, and network effects are difficult to replicate.

4. SK Hynix's American Depositary Receipts (ADR) have only been listed for three days, and their premium relative to the company's Korean listed stock has soared to over 50%. These ADRs rose 27% on Tuesday, recovering not only the previous day's 9.3% loss but also gaining significantly. Data shows that this gives them a premium of 51% compared to ordinary shares in the Seoul market, far exceeding the premium of 3% at the time of the $26.5 billion ADR issuance last week.

5. OpenAI is developing a screenless mobile smart speaker as an AI companion device with human-like traits, capable of controlling smart home appliances while deeply utilizing the full capabilities of ChatGPT.

6. Apple is evaluating technology from PrismML. This startup claims that the technology can deeply compress high-performance AI models, allowing them to run directly on the iPhone, with memory usage potentially reduced by up to 15 times. This breakthrough technology is expected to enable more AI computations to be completed locally on phones without sending requests to the cloud, thereby enhancing Siri's speed and strengthening user privacy protection.

7. Former President Trump stated in an interview that U.S. strikes against Iran will continue until he decides to stop. Trump reiterated that the Strait of Hormuz must remain open. He stated that the U.S. will eventually strike Iranian energy targets, but these targets will be saved for last. Trump mentioned that unless Iran returns to the negotiating table, the U.S. will strike Iranian power plants and bridges next week.

8. Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas stated on the X platform that the gold ETF SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) has seen nearly $15 billion in outflows since March 1, which is actually about 50% higher than the cumulative outflows of all spot Bitcoin ETFs since last October's peak.

# 5. Today's Market Calendar

Data Release Schedule

|------------|----|----------------------------------------|-----| | 08:30 (ET) | U.S. | Empire State Manufacturing Survey (July) | ⭐⭐⭐ | | Other Times | U.S. | Fed Beige Book | ⭐⭐⭐ |

Important Event Forecast

• U.S.-Iran Geopolitical Situation Continues to Ferment: Continuously monitor the dynamics in the Strait of Hormuz and energy facilities - focus on oil price fluctuations, supply chains, and global inflation expectation transmission.
• Federal Reserve Officials' Statements: Pay attention to subsequent speeches from Warsh and other officials - policy paths and data dependence stance.

Institutional Views:

Well-known investment bank analysts generally believe that the cooling of the June CPI provides a clear breathing space for the market, alleviating concerns over aggressive Federal Reserve policies. However, the hawkish statements and "data dependence" stance of the newly nominated Fed Chairman Warsh suggest that policy paths still carry uncertainties, and the timeline for interest rate cuts may be delayed. The escalation of geopolitical conflicts may push inflation expectations higher through energy channels, delaying easing measures and supporting the dollar and yields. Institutions like Goldman Sachs hold a cautious view on the prospects of software service stocks like IBM, while maintaining an optimistic allocation perspective on AI hardware and memory supply chains (NVDA, SK Hynix, MU). In the crypto market, institutions point out that BTC ETF outflows reflect short-term profit-taking and leveraged position clearing, but overall risk appetite is warming, enhancing the correlation between crypto and U.S. stocks, suggesting attention to leverage levels and the impact of macro/geopolitical data. Overall, the short-term market may maintain a range-bound fluctuation, with structural opportunities in the AI theme standing out, but vigilance is needed against geopolitical black swans impacting commodities and safe-haven assets, making position management and risk hedging key.

Disclaimer: The above content is compiled by AI search, with human verification for publication, and should not be considered as any investment advice. The data in the text may inevitably contain deviations; please refer to real-time market data.