Daily Observation of Cryptocurrency Concept Stocks: CPI 3.5% Soft Landing + Warsh's Hawkish Testimony in Congress - Standard Chartered's conclusion of "the end of the crypto winter" is being validated by the market

Kendrick's "Three Ifs": Yesterday's CPI Addressed the First

Standard Chartered released the "Three Ifs" framework on June 28, indicating that Bitcoin needs to meet three conditions for a sustained rebound: if the CLARITY Act legislation progresses (currently still in progress, Congress reconvenes on July 13); if the macro liquidity environment improves (i.e., inflation cools → interest rate cut expectations rise); if ETF fund flows shift from net outflows to net inflows (on July 4, broke a 10-day outflow streak, showing cumulative improvement). Yesterday's CPI at 3.5% (expected 3.8%) and core CPI at 2.6% (expected 2.8%) directly triggered the second condition—signals of cooling inflation substantially strengthened market expectations that "the Federal Reserve is highly likely to maintain interest rates at the July 29 FOMC meeting, with discussions of rate cuts possibly restarting in September." The 30-year Treasury futures rose, the 2-year Treasury yield fell from its highs, and the dollar index weakened simultaneously. According to historical patterns, the marginal improvement in macro liquidity has a transmission cycle of about 4 to 8 weeks for Bitcoin, which means that the period from late July to mid-August is the clearest time window for price recovery predicted by Standard Chartered.

Warsh's Hawkish Paradox: Soft CPI but No Softening of Rate Stance

Yesterday, Warsh's congressional testimony created a key macro paradox: soft data (CPI at 3.5%) but a hard stance from the Fed chair. Warsh stated that "inflation, not the Federal Reserve's policy rate, is the reason behind the recent rise in long-term rates," and clearly indicated, "Don't expect this to mean I'm considering rate cuts." He specifically pointed out during questioning that the Fed's policy framework allowing inflation to run hot during the COVID era has fundamental flaws, implying that the current policy framework will be more hawkish. The implications for the crypto market are layered: in the short term (from today to the July 29 FOMC), optimism driven by CPI data dominates, keeping Bitcoin above $64,000; in the medium term (after the July 29 FOMC), if Warsh maintains a hawkish stance or even hints at rate hikes, expectations for rate cuts in September will be suppressed again, and the macro tailwind for crypto assets will face resistance. The implied logic behind Standard Chartered's $120,000 year-end Bitcoin target is "the Fed ultimately turns dovish in H2," and Warsh's hawkish stance is the most significant single risk factor on this path.

Zodia Custody Completion in August: Standard Chartered's Crypto Layout Enters Execution Phase

In sync with the research narrative, Standard Chartered's capital operations are advancing: the company's full acquisition of Zodia Custody is set to complete by the end of August, with the signing already completed at the end of June. Upon completion, Standard Chartered will become the world's first multinational tier-one bank to operate institutional-level crypto custody business through a fully owned subsidiary, differing from BNY Mellon's indirect participation (entering through USDC minting channels) and State Street's joint venture model. Zodia currently holds licenses from the UK FCA, the Central Bank of Ireland, and multiple European jurisdictions, serving hedge funds, asset management firms, and some sovereign funds. Against the backdrop of Goldman’s Q2 report confirming "early stages of AI infrastructure" and CEX spot volume rebounding for the first time in June (+15.3% to $1.11 trillion), the completion of Standard Chartered's Zodia will be highly coordinated with the overall expansion wave of institutional crypto infrastructure, with its custody business expected to add multiple hedge fund and family office clients in H2.

This Week's Bank Earnings + Next Week's FOMC are Key Two Weeks for Bitcoin's $65,000 Breakthrough

The two weeks from today (July 15) to July 29 (FOMC decision) are a critical testing window for whether all conditions of Standard Chartered's "Three Ifs" framework can be met: yesterday's CPI addressed the second condition (improvement in macro liquidity); the progress of the CLARITY Act after Congress reconvenes will determine the first condition; daily ETF data (since July 4, average redemptions have decreased from $193 million to $88.9 million) will determine whether the third condition can officially turn positive. Goldman Sachs CEO's "early innings" statement and JPMorgan's endorsement of AI financing demand together construct a macro narrative of institutional funds structurally concentrating on crypto-adjacent assets—Standard Chartered is at the execution end of this narrative chain: research output (Kendrick's bottom call) + capital layout (Zodia acquisition) + business implementation (institutional custody + stablecoin settlement), a trinity positioning that gives it the most complete benefit structure when the rebound is established in H2.

Data source: https://bbx.com/ Crypto concept stock information database, compiled based on global listed company announcements and SEC/TSE disclosure documents from yesterday.