Daily Observation of Cryptocurrency Concept Stocks: Congress reconvenes today, the CLARITY Act enters its final battle, can Circle's "dual regulatory framework" be implemented simultaneously before August?
Released on July 13, 2026. The U.S. Congress officially reconvened today (July 13) from the Independence Day recess, and the legislative process for the CLARITY Act has entered its second and final feasible advancement window for this year—Astraea Law predicts the most likely presidential signing date to be around August 3, while Galaxy Research has set the probability of passing in 2026 at about 50%. For Circle Internet Group, Inc. (NYSE: $CRCL), today marks a critical starting point for whether the dual regulatory framework can be implemented simultaneously: MiCA officially took effect in Europe on July 1 (Circle has completed compliance registration), and if the CLARITY Act completes a full Senate vote before August, Circle will obtain a clear regulatory framework in both Europe and the United States, the two most important jurisdictions, within 2026—this will be the most significant single valuation repair condition for $CRCL since its listing.
Legislative Clock After Congress Reconvenes: Three Weeks to Determine the Year’s Fate
After Congress reconvened on July 13, the Senate has about 15 legislative workdays available before the August recess (expected to start in early August), which is the last realistic window for the CLARITY Act to complete a full vote this year. There are currently two key obstacles: first, the ethical provisions—Senator Gillibrand insists on including restrictions on government officials' cryptocurrency holdings, while the White House rejects any provisions that would include the president's family as restricted subjects; second, the wording dispute regarding Section 604 (blockchain regulatory certainty provisions) at the enforcement level has yet to be resolved. Meanwhile, Alsobrooks (Maryland, Democrat) recently stated that he "sees more room for bipartisan agreement," and Gallego (Arizona, Democrat) has already voted in favor in committee—currently, about 5 to 7 Democratic senators still need to cross the line to reach the 60-vote threshold. Senators Lummis and Scott aim to resolve the two core disagreements this week (July 13-18) to create conditions for a full vote in the third week of July.
Circle's Business Logic Under the "Dual Regulatory Framework"
MiCA officially took effect on July 1, and Circle registered as an electronic money institution (EMI) through the French AMF, allowing it to operate USDC with a "passport" in the 27 EU countries (classified as electronic money tokens EMT); competitor Tether USDT faces stricter European compliance challenges under MiCA's reserve requirements, and a structural shift in market share is expected. If the CLARITY Act is legislated before August, the regulatory path for USDC in the U.S. will be established simultaneously—the overlapping compliance frameworks of the two markets mean that Circle can simultaneously seek incremental demand in European B2B payment scenarios (accelerated passporting) and the U.S. institutional settlement market (opening institutional entry with the CLARITY Act), with USDC supply expected to reach new highs in Q4 2026. Based on the current USDC scale of approximately $78 billion and a 3.5% reserve yield, each additional $10 billion in USDC supply corresponds to about $350 million in annualized reserve interest income increment, making the implementation of the dual regulatory framework the most important institutional prerequisite for achieving this scale expansion.
The Lesson from BitGo's IPO Plunge: Why Circle is the Exception
In the same news update, BitGo Holdings fell 77% from its listing price of $22.43, Bullish dropped 71%, and eToro fell 42%—the systemic downturn in the entire crypto IPO track highlights Circle's relative resilience with only a 6% decline. The valuation differences between the two types of companies stem from the fundamentally different nature of their business models: the valuations of platforms like BitGo and Bullish are highly dependent on crypto trading volume and BTC prices (with a record net outflow in June 2026 for crypto ETFs directly compressing their revenue); Circle's core revenue comes from USDC reserve interest—this is a revenue model positively correlated with interest rates and weakly correlated with BTC prices, demonstrating unique defensiveness in the high-interest + BTC bear market environment of H1 2026. This also explains why institutional signals such as Bernstein's research report, Goldman Sachs' Q1 13F increase, and BNY Mellon's opening of USDC minting channels have continued to focus on Circle during the 2026 BTC bear market.
The Dual Catalytic Combination of July 28-29 FOMC + August 3 CLARITY Act Target Window
This month's two key milestones will unfold sequentially: July 28-29 marks Kevin Warsh's second FOMC—since the statement on June 30 that "inflation risks have eased," the market's pricing of the probability of interest rate cuts within the year has begun to rise; if the mid-July CPI data (expected on July 15) shows moderate performance, expectations before the FOMC will further turn dovish, directly benefiting BTC prices and the sustainability of Circle's reserve yield at high levels (while reserve rates decline during rate cuts, the scale expansion at that time will more than compensate); around August 3, if the CLARITY Act completes the full Senate vote, Circle will enter a complete operational era under the "MiCA Europe + CLARITY America" dual regulatory framework. For investors holding $CRCL, today's reconvening of Congress is the trigger event for this series of catalysts—the opening of the legislative window will be the most unique positive value reassessment condition for $CRCL amidst the general decline in the IPO track throughout the year.
Data source: https://bbx.com/ Crypto concept stock information database, compiled based on yesterday's announcements from global listed companies and SEC/TSE disclosure documents.
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