Bloomberg: Polymarket's trading volume has been surpassed by Kalshi, and the layout of the U.S. market has frequently faced setbacks

Polymarket, which has long dominated the prediction market trading volume, is facing multiple challenges. According to Dune Analytics, its global trading volume has been surpassed by major competitor Kalshi. In terms of valuation, Kalshi announced a new round of financing last month, reaching a valuation of $22 billion, while Polymarket's valuation is $15 billion after receiving a $600 million investment from the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE).

Polymarket's biggest bottleneck is the inability to officially launch in the U.S. market, as its U.S. application is still in the testing phase, with March trading volume being only one-twentieth of Kalshi's. Technical challenges brought by the blockchain architecture, repeated delays in product launches, recent fee adjustments causing user dissatisfaction, and issues such as the exchange being down for over an hour continue to plague the platform.

Additionally, Polymarket has faced scrutiny for allowing users to bet on controversial topics such as war and nuclear explosions, leading Democratic lawmakers in Congress to send a letter to the CFTC requesting intervention. ICE CEO Sprecher remains optimistic but admits it could either be a total failure or a home run.