Bitget UEX Daily Report | Expectations for US-Iran talks heat up; 30-year US Treasury yield approaches 5%; ADP employment hits a 15-month high (May 7, 2026)

# 1. Hot News

Federal Reserve Dynamics

30-Year U.S. Treasury Yield Approaches 5% "Maginot Line"

• Bank of America views this level as the upper limit of tolerable interest rates for the stock market and a psychological watershed for the switch between stocks and bonds; current high oil prices exacerbate inflation stickiness, increasing divergence between stocks and bonds.
• The market is concerned that an effective breakthrough could trigger leveraged liquidations and systemic capital outflows. Market Impact: In an environment where rising interest rates coexist with risk appetite, the continued upward movement of U.S. stocks faces challenges, and investors need to pay attention to bond market signals that may suppress equity assets.

International Commodities

U.S.-Iran Peace Expectations Drive Oil Price Retreat, Low Speculative Positions in Silver Prepare for Breakthrough

• Iran is reviewing the U.S. peace proposal, with Trump optimistically predicting an agreement could be reached next week, including Iran transporting highly enriched uranium to the U.S.; however, core demands (suspending the nuclear program, reopening the Strait of Hormuz) remain unresolved.
• ZeroHedge points out that speculative positions in silver have dropped to low levels, volatility has decreased, and AI infrastructure demand is supportive; if it stabilizes above the $80 mark, it may trigger a chase for gains and squeeze positions. Market Impact: The decline in geopolitical risk premium is favorable for risk assets, the retreat in oil prices alleviates inflation pressure, while silver, with its dual attributes of industrial use and safe haven, may attract capital inflows.

Macroeconomic Policy

U.S. April ADP Employment Strong Growth of 109,000, Limited Manufacturing Resurgence

• ADP data exceeded expectations (99,000), significantly accelerated from March, marking the tenth consecutive month of positive growth and the strongest single month since January last year; education and healthcare led, while manufacturing only added 2,000 jobs.
• Goldman Sachs reports that by 2030, AI agents will drive global token consumption to increase 24 times compared to 2026, opening up profit space for the industry. Market Impact: Employment resilience supports soft landing expectations, but the sluggish manufacturing sector highlights that the effectiveness of tariff policies remains to be observed; the sustainability of AI capital expenditures strengthens long-term support for tech stocks.

# 2. Market Review

Commodity & Forex Performance

• Spot Gold: -0.07%, currently around $4,687/oz, rebounding strongly for two consecutive days, driven by easing geopolitical tensions and a weakening dollar.
• Spot Silver: -0.27%, currently around $77/oz.
• WTI Crude Oil: +1.26%, currently around $96/barrel.
• Brent Crude Oil: +1.01%, currently around $102/barrel.
• Dollar Index: +0.01%, currently at 98.041.

Cryptocurrency Performance

• BTC: +0.09%, currently around $81,077, continuing its rebound trend.
• ETH: -1.31%, currently around $2,410.
• Total Cryptocurrency Market Cap: +0.2%, total market cap around $2.77 trillion, BTC's dominance remains stable, and improved risk appetite drives overall recovery.
• Market Liquidation Situation: Total liquidation in 24H approximately $482 million, with short liquidations around $292 million.
• Bitget BTC/USDT Liquidation Map: BTC's current price is around 80,926, with significant high-leverage short liquidation pressure in the $80,500-$81,000 range; if it continues to surge, it may trigger a chain reaction of short liquidations and amplify volatility. There is also a dense long liquidation zone around $79,500-$80,000; if it breaks below, the market may experience a rapid decline and long squeeze.

• BTC Spot ETF Net Inflow/Outflow: On May 4 and 5, net inflows were $532 million and $467 million, respectively, with strong inflows and continued expansion of institutional allocation demand. However, there was a net outflow of $8.8 million yesterday.
• BTC Inflow/Outflow: Yesterday, there was a net inflow of $107 million in spot; futures and contracts had a net inflow of $800 million.

U.S. Stock Index Performance

• Dow Jones: Up 1.24% to 49,910.59 points, maintaining a steady trend but lagging behind tech stocks.
• S&P 500: Up 1.46% to 7,365.12 points, setting a new historical high, driven by AI assets.
• Nasdaq: Up 2.02% to 25,838.94 points, setting a new historical high, with sector drivers primarily in semiconductors and AI infrastructure.

Tech Giants Dynamics

• NVIDIA (NVDA): +5.77% to $207.50, market cap returns to $5 trillion, with continued explosive demand for AI data centers.
• Google-A (GOOGL): +2.47% to $395.00, boosted by the outlook for AI agent economy.
• Apple (AAPL): +1.17% to $285.00, supported by expectations for consumer-side AI applications.
• Microsoft (MSFT): +0.63% to $412.80, with robust growth in cloud + AI synergy.
• Amazon (AMZN): +0.53% to $275.00, benefiting from AI infrastructure in AWS cloud business.
• Meta (META): +1.31% to $608.00, driven by advertising + AI investment.
• Tesla (TSLA): +2.4% to $390.00, with continued optimism around AI + autonomous driving. Summary: The seven giants generally rose, primarily due to the AI agent economy report and semiconductor industry linkage, with funds flowing back from commodities to technology.

Sector Movement Observation

Semiconductor Sector rose about 4.5%

• Representative stocks: AMD +18% (earnings report exceeded expectations), Micron Technology (MU) +4%, Intel (INTC) +4%.
• Driving factors: AI data center CPU/GPU demand exceeded expectations, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index having accumulated over 50% growth in April.

Chinese Concept Stocks surged across the board

• Representative stocks: Baidu +11.37%, Alibaba +6.94%, Pinduoduo +5.75%.
• Driving factors: Improved global risk appetite combined with domestic policy expectations, with technology and consumer sectors rebounding in sync.

# 3. In-Depth Analysis of U.S. Stocks

1. Arm Holdings (ARM) - Q4 Fiscal Performance Exceeds Expectations

Event Overview: Arm's revenue for the last fiscal quarter grew 20.2% year-on-year to $1.49 billion, with adjusted EPS of $0.60, both exceeding expectations. The company noted strong demand for high-efficiency CPU designs for AI data centers, effectively offsetting short-term pressures in the smartphone market; AGI CPU product demand from clients has exceeded $2 billion for the fiscal years 2027-2028, but adjusted operating profit margin fell from 53% to 49%. After-hours stock price fell about 6%. Market Interpretation: Institutions believe AI demand is favorable in the long term, but short-term pressures in the mobile sector remain, and the decline in profit margins raises caution. Investment Insight: The AI infrastructure cycle is still in its early stages, and ARM's long-term growth logic remains unchanged; attention can be paid to allocation opportunities after corrections.

2. Albemarle (ALB) - First Quarter Performance Soars

Event Overview: Driven by the rebound in lithium prices and growth in demand for data center energy storage batteries, first-quarter sales grew 33% year-on-year to $1.43 billion, with adjusted EBITDA soaring to $663.8 million (doubling year-on-year), far exceeding market expectations of $468.2 million. After-hours stock price rose nearly 4%. Market Interpretation: Institutions are optimistic about the bottoming out of lithium prices and the demand for new energy, with performance validating industry recovery. Investment Insight: The profitability elasticity of lithium mining giants is evident; attention should be paid to valuation recovery space driven by energy storage + EV dual engines.

3. Applovin (APP) - Q1 Net Profit Soars and Guidance Raised

Event Overview: Q1 revenue grew 59% year-on-year to $1.842 billion, better than expected; EPS of $3.56 exceeded expectations; the company repurchased 2.2 million Class A shares at a cost of $1 billion. Q2 revenue guidance is $1.915-1.945 billion, higher than market expectations, with adjusted EBITDA profit margin of 84-85%. Market Interpretation: Institutions emphasize the synergy between mobile advertising and AI technology, with profit margin expansion exceeding expectations. Investment Insight: Both performance and guidance exceeded expectations, demonstrating the resilience of the platform's business model, suitable for focusing on growth certainty.

4. IonQ (IONQ) - Q1 Revenue Soars and Full-Year Guidance Raised

Event Overview: Q1 revenue of $64.7 million grew 755% year-on-year, exceeding the median expectation by 30%; adjusted loss per share was $0.34. The company raised its full-year revenue guidance for 2026 to $260-270 million, with Q2 guidance of $65-68 million. After-hours stock price fell over 5%. Market Interpretation: The commercialization process of quantum computing is accelerating, but short-term valuation digestion pressure is significant. Investment Insight: Revenue explosion validates technology implementation, highlighting the value of long-term frontier technology layout.

# 4. Cryptocurrency Project Dynamics

1. Frank La Salla, CEO of the U.S. securities clearing giant DTCC (Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation), stated that the company is collaborating with multiple high-performance Layer 1 blockchains to explore migrating complex corporate actions such as dividend payments and tender offers to on-chain processing.

2. According to EmberCN monitoring, after 100 million PENGU (valued at approximately $1.08 million) were transferred from the token deployment address of Pudgy Penguins to CEX, PENGU dropped 7% ($0.01147 → $0.0106).

3. Patrick Witt, White House Digital Asset Advisor, stated that the Trump administration is pushing Congress to pass the "Digital Asset Market Clarity Act" crypto market structure bill before July 4, calling it the "best birthday gift" for the 250th anniversary of the United States. According to the latest proposal, the bill will prohibit stablecoins from offering yields similar to bank deposits but will allow reward mechanisms linked to consumption behavior. Witt stated that the proposal was formed through joint consultations between banks and the crypto industry convened by the White House, saying, "The crypto industry is not satisfied, the banks are also not satisfied, but both sides are about equally dissatisfied, which indicates that this is the right compromise."

4. The probability of "Strategy selling any amount of Bitcoin it holds before the end of the year" on Polymarket has significantly increased to 49% (from 12% on May 5). Additionally, the probability of selling any Bitcoin before May 31, 2026, is 17%, and before June 30, it is 26%. Previously reported, Strategy founder Michael Saylor broke his "never sell" stance for the first time during a live Q1 earnings call, stating that the company might sell some Bitcoin holdings to pay dividends, saying, "We might sell some Bitcoin to pay dividends, aiming to desensitize the market and send the signal that we indeed did this."

# 5. Today's Market Calendar

Data Release Schedule

|-------|----|---------|-----| | 08:30 | U.S. | Initial Jobless Claims | ⭐⭐⭐ | | 08:30 | U.S. | Q1 Productivity | ⭐⭐⭐ | | 10:00 | U.S. | March Construction Spending | ⭐⭐ |

Important Event Forecast

• Federal Reserve Officials Speaking: Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari and Cleveland Fed President Hammack will speak, focusing on the latest statements regarding the interest rate path.

Institutional Views:

With expectations for U.S.-Iran talks significantly heating up, the geopolitical risk premium has rapidly declined, and the drop in oil prices directly alleviates inflation pressure, opening up space for future Federal Reserve policy easing. Institutions like Goldman Sachs emphasize that the turning point for the AI agent economy is approaching, with token consumption expected to surge 24 times by 2030, further strengthening the long-term growth logic for tech stocks and crypto assets. Yesterday, the Nasdaq and S&P 500 set new historical highs, with semiconductors and Chinese concept stocks leading the gains, reflecting a rotation of funds from commodities to high-beta growth assets. In the crypto market, BTC remains stable above $81,000, with continuous net inflows into ETFs supporting institutional allocation demand. Investment bank analysts generally believe that the current environment is favorable for risk assets, but caution is warranted regarding the pressure that may arise from the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield approaching the 5% "Maginot Line." Overall, the soft landing + AI theme remains the main line of the market, with structural long positions still predominant amid short-term volatility.

Disclaimer: The above content is organized by AI search, with human verification for publication, and should not be considered as any investment advice. The data in the text may inevitably contain discrepancies; please refer to real-time market data.