Wintermute: This increase is clearly driven by leverage, with a surge in open contracts accompanied by a decline in spot trading volume

Wintermute released a weekly market summary stating that the U.S. stock market continued its strong performance, recording a sixth consecutive week of gains, with the Nasdaq index rising 4.5% and the S&P 500 index rising 2.3%, both reaching all-time highs, while small-cap stocks and tech giants strengthened simultaneously. Non-farm payroll data exceeded expectations, with the unemployment rate stable at 4.3%, showcasing a resilient labor market. Despite the turmoil in the Strait of Hormuz, the market viewed it as noise, and the war premium has significantly receded. Iran-U.S. negotiations have returned to square one, with Iran's demands for sovereignty, compensation, and sanctions relief being directly rejected by Trump. This week's CPI data will test the transmission of energy prices to inflation, and with Powell's term ending and Waller taking over, the Fed's June FOMC dot plot will be closely watched.

In terms of crypto assets, Bitcoin broke through the $80,000 mark, reaching a peak of around $83,000, marking its first time above the 200-day moving average (for the first time in seven months), but this rise was clearly driven by leverage: open interest surged by $10 billion in one month, while spot trading volume hit a two-year low, indicating a typical short squeeze rather than a healthy breakout. Institutional funding remains supportive, with ETF net inflows of $623 million and trading platform reserves hitting a seven-year low, but short-term risks are high—RSI has entered the overbought zone, and if the squeeze ends without spot trading picking up, Bitcoin's price could quickly retreat.

Altcoins have shifted towards personalized narratives, with tokenization and AI computing sectors performing prominently. Overall, in the crypto market, this round of rebound needs to be quickly validated as a true bull market starting point: currently driven mainly by the stock market and leverage resonance, if CPI rises or the Fed's leadership change brings uncertainty, whether Bitcoin can independently hold above $80,000 will become a key confirmation signal.