Data: BTC has remained above the short-term holder cost since breaking through in April, and the cycle bottom will eventually form

On-chain data analyst Murphy stated that the change in the relationship between cost basis and price behavior is one of the best perspectives for observing BTC forming a bottom structure, and the "1-3 month short-term holder cost basis" (1-3m_RP) is the most effective reference.

The formation of each round of bear bottom structures is accompanied by a gradual shift in the short-term holder cost basis (1-3m_RP, yellow line). Taking previous cycles as examples: in 2015-2016, BTC oscillated around the short-term holder cost basis for a long time after first breaking through it; in 2019-2020, BTC strongly broke through the short-term holder cost basis and then entered a small bull market; in 2022-2023, BTC broke through the short-term holder cost basis, then retested it a second time, and after gaining support, rebounded again.

Since BTC broke through on April 15, it has remained above the short-term holder cost basis. However, regardless of how the trend develops next, a bottom will eventually form, and BTC will break through the yellow line and inevitably turn. Analysts believe that the important thing is not to predict the specific trend, but to prepare in advance and allocate positions reasonably. The trends from previous years are only examples and not investment advice.