Analysis: The potential ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran boosts risk assets, but BTC continues to show a weak decoupling trend

Despite reports that negotiations between the U.S. and Iran have reached a 60-day ceasefire and a draft memorandum for discussions on the nuclear program, the cryptocurrency market remains under pressure, with Bitcoin falling below $73,000, down about 2.7% in 24 hours. The U.S. stock and bond markets were boosted, with the Nasdaq rising 0.6%, while WTI crude oil prices dropped below $90 per barrel.

On a macro level, the first inflation report under the new Federal Reserve Chair Warsh shows that the U.S. core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index rose to 3.8% year-on-year in April, the highest level in nearly three years, up from 2.8% in February. Olu Sonola, the U.S. economy director at Fitch Ratings, stated that inflationary pressures may persist in the coming months, making it difficult for the Federal Reserve to ignore supply shocks that drive potential inflation.

Market analysis indicates that in the short term, macroeconomic favorable factors have significantly boosted the stock market and oil prices, but the cryptocurrency market lacks similar direct stimuli, and Bitcoin and other digital assets still face selling pressure.