Analysis: The market underestimates the possibility of the Federal Reserve tightening its policy, with a 20% chance of interest rate cuts

According to Jinshi News, T. Rowe Price Chief U.S. Economist Blerina Uruci stated that the market may still be underestimating the likelihood of the Federal Reserve further tightening its policies.

She pointed out that since early May, the duration of the Iran conflict has exceeded expectations, oil prices have risen, and U.S. economic growth has remained resilient. Uruci believes that the probability of the federal funds rate remaining unchanged over the next 12 months is 45%, the probability of a rate hike by the end of the year or early 2027 is 35%, and the probability of a rate cut is 20%.