Analysis: MSTR's share dilution of Bitcoin holdings may trigger a death spiral if it continues

NextGen Venture founder Jason Huang posted on platform X that Strategy (MSTR) issued new shares through an ATM last week, which did not actually increase the per-share Bitcoin holdings but instead diluted its mNAV multiple. He pointed out that the number of Bitcoins corresponding to each share is decreasing, and the official mNAV metric has dropped to 1.1 times, based on the most recent disclosure before last week's decline. Huang warned that once MSTR's performance relative to Bitcoin lags by another 10% (negative Alpha), each issuance through the ATM will further dilute the per-share Bitcoin holdings, and at that point, the death spiral will truly begin; the recent decline is merely an appetizer.