Next week's macro outlook: Waller's congressional hearing coincides with CPI, and the market anticipates more clues on interest rate prospects

According to Jinshi reports, the tensions between the U.S. and Iran escalated sharply this week, with mutual attacks leading to the collapse of a fragile ceasefire agreement that had lasted for about three weeks. The inflationary pressure driven by rising oil prices has reignited expectations for the Federal Reserve to tighten its policies. During the same period, U.S. stocks largely ignored geopolitical uncertainties, with the "AI trading" frenzy regaining momentum, as the S&P 500 index approached an all-time high, and both it and the Nasdaq recorded a consecutive weekly gain. SK Hynix's ADR surged 13% on its first day, with a fundraising amount of $26.5 billion, making it the highest fundraising foreign company IPO in U.S. stock market history.

In the coming week, the U.S.-Iran situation, U.S. CPI and other economic data, and speeches from Federal Reserve officials will capture Wall Street's attention. There is particular anticipation for whether Federal Reserve Chairman Waller can provide more clues about the interest rate outlook under questioning in Congress, although his determination to cancel forward guidance leaves little room for optimism. The macro data events for next week are as follows:

Monday

Federal Reserve Governor Waller speaks

Tuesday

U.S. ADP employment change for the week ending June 27

U.S. June CPI and core CPI

Federal Reserve Chairman Waller attends the House Financial Services Committee "Federal Reserve Semiannual Monetary Policy Report" hearing

Wednesday

2027 FOMC voter and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee participates in a fireside chat

U.S. June PPI and core PPI

FOMC permanent voter and New York Fed President Williams speaks

Federal Reserve Chairman Waller attends the Senate Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Committee "Federal Reserve Semiannual Monetary Policy Report" hearing

Federal Reserve releases the Beige Book on economic conditions

Thursday

U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending July 11, U.S. June retail sales month-on-month, U.S. July Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index

2026 FOMC voter and Dallas Fed President Logan speaks

Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Jefferson speaks on the economy and monetary policy