QCP Capital: The situation between the US and Iran intertwined with macro events, market vigilance on rising volatility in cryptocurrency continues

According to QCP Capital, it has been 12 days since the US and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding, and both sides experienced military conflicts again over the weekend, each accusing the other of violating the 60-day ceasefire agreement, putting pressure on the prospects for the second round of negotiations. Oil prices remain around $70, but if supply recovers slower than expected, there is still an upward risk for oil prices.

In the cryptocurrency market, the implied volatility of BTC and ETH continues to rise, with increased demand for BTC put options in the $55,000-$58,000 range expiring in July. There has been a continuous net outflow from spot ETFs, concerns related to Strategy, and the pressure from the US stock market has weighed on market sentiment. However, there was also a significant buying interest in BTC call options at $64,000 expiring on the 17th. This week, the market will focus on Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh's speech at the ECB forum, as well as the ISM Manufacturing PMI and US non-farm payroll data. Given the low liquidity ahead of the holiday, market volatility is expected to remain high.