Wintermute: Bitcoin shows "bearish but not falling" bottoming characteristics, key resistance level at $67,250

Wintermute released a market analysis stating that under multiple geopolitical shocks such as the U.S. airstrikes on Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, Bitcoin has still maintained the critical support level of $62,000, showing strong resilience in the market.

Last week, as U.S.-Iran negotiations were paused due to related issues, Iran attacked commercial vessels, and the U.S. launched a new round of airstrikes. Tehran announced the indefinite closure of the Strait of Hormuz, leading to a significant rise in international oil prices, with Brent crude oil seeing a weekly increase of 6.3%, and the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries rising to 4.57%. The market has readjusted the probability of a Fed rate hike in September to about 61%, and the U.S. CPI data to be released this week will be a key indicator affecting expectations for the July FOMC meeting.

In the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin has maintained a stable trend despite facing consecutive geopolitical risk events, holding the $62,000 area after a minimum pullback and gradually rising to around $64,000. Ethereum performed even stronger, with prices nearing $1,805.

Meanwhile, the eight-week trend of ETF fund outflows has finally ended, with Bitcoin and Ethereum-related products recording a total inflow of about $282 million last week. Although the weekly inflow is still insufficient to confirm a trend reversal, combined with the recent continuous accumulation by whales and the market's weakened reaction to negative news, marginal selling pressure is easing, and the market may be forming a phase bottom.

Additionally, the market's reaction to Strategy selling Bitcoin has been muted, contrasting sharply with two months ago when the sale of just 32 BTC triggered a sell-off, indicating that investor concerns about potential selling pressure have significantly decreased.

Currently, Bitcoin has shown a "not falling on bad news" bottoming characteristic, but the market still needs to wait for further confirmation. Key factors going forward include the performance of U.S. CPI, whether ETF funds can continue to flow in, and the developments in the Strait of Hormuz situation. If inflation data cools, fund flows continue to improve, and progress is made on the CLARITY Act, Bitcoin is expected to challenge the key resistance level of $67,250; conversely, if oil prices continue to rise and macro pressures intensify, the $60,000 support may face another test.