NYDIG: Bitcoin has fallen nearly 30% this year, performing at the bottom, with supply mechanisms rather than risk sentiment dominating the downturn

According to Bitcoin Magazine, a report from NYDIG shows that Bitcoin has fallen nearly 30% this year, performing the worst among various assets, lagging behind U.S. Treasury bonds, silver, and the Swiss franc. The report points out that the current slump is due to supply mechanisms rather than risk sentiment, and the timing and structure of the pullback in 2025-2026 are increasingly resembling the adjustment years of 2014, 2018, and 2022. If the 2022 model is fully replicated, the cycle low could be around $38,000-$39,000.

However, Bitcoin experienced its lowest volatility year on record in 2025, and some analysts believe this year's pullback may be shallower than in previous bear markets. In Q2 2026, the rolling correlation between Bitcoin and gold increased, with both assets facing sell-offs, and the "devaluation trade" losing momentum. Bitwise stated last week that despite Bitcoin being in the deepest and longest slump since the last bear market, the fundamentals have laid the groundwork for a rapid recovery. NYDIG referred to the CLARITY Act as "the most important forward-looking catalyst for the digital asset industry."