Famous trader: Bitcoin has completed a five-wave adjustment, and the structure indicates that a bottom may have formed

Famous trader Killa posted that Bitcoin's historical bear markets typically complete a 5-wave adjustment and form two significant peaks. The first peak often occurs after the initial major rebound following the top, known as the "complacency peak," where the market generally believes that the bull market has returned. Subsequently, prices usually continue to decline to new lows. He pointed out that similar structures appeared in the cycles of 2014, 2022, and 2026.

After the complacency peak is formed, the market typically experiences a "dead cat bounce" and establishes a phase bottom; as market sentiment deteriorates and short positions concentrate, a short squeeze then drives the price rebound, with the final bottom usually forming after the second significant retest.

Killa believes that BTC has currently swept through the bottom formed by the "dead cat bounce" and completed a 5-wave adjustment structure similar to previous cycles. From a structural perspective, the adjustment wave has ended, and the bottom may have already formed. However, he remains cautious about the time cycle. Previous bear markets typically lasted about 365 days before forming the final bottom, while this round, if the bottom has already appeared, has only lasted about 260 days, which is about 100 days earlier than the historical cycle. Currently, he maintains a 50-50 judgment, but compared to significantly making new lows, the likelihood of forming higher lows subsequently is greater.