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Famous trader Killa: Bitcoin may bottom out before the midterm elections, and the rise after the midterm elections needs to be approached with caution

Renowned trader Killa recently released a video predicting market trends before and after the U.S. midterm elections. His analysis summarizes the timing relationship between previous midterm elections and Bitcoin's bottoming out (2014: bottomed out about 70 days after the midterm elections. 2018: bottomed out about 40-44 days later. 2022: bottomed out almost during the midterm elections), suggesting that Bitcoin may form a weekly level bottom before the U.S. midterm elections on November 3.He also presented two main scenario hypotheses: Early bottom scenario: BTC forms a low point before (or around) the midterm elections (possibly sweeping the current low or maintaining above 80k), then starts to rebound, first testing the 80k area, and may eventually surge to 95k. This would lead to a bullish fourth quarter, contrary to the common expectation of "risk-off after the elections." Classic risk-off scenario: first rises sharply (possibly sweeping the high point or even reaching 94-95k), then experiences a historically common sell-off/risk-off decline after the midterm elections (similar in 3 out of the last 4 occurrences).Killa advises investors to closely observe the price structure leading up to the midterm elections and react accordingly. If an early bottom is reached, they may hold bullish positions after the elections; if a high is reached and then starts to weaken, consider risk-off. Overall, he emphasizes that the pattern is accelerating in change and cannot simply replicate the historical experience of "must drop after the elections." Killa, as a quantitative trader focused on BTC, predicted the peak of this bull market in May 2025 and has over 200,000 followers on platform X. In mid-April, he shorted Bitcoin at 74,688 USD and turned bullish during the market-wide decline on June 5.

Famous trader: Bitcoin needs to hold above $80,000 and form higher lows; otherwise, the pullback may deepen

Renowned trader Killa stated that if Bitcoin is to evolve according to the current trend structure, it needs to form a higher low above $75,500, ideally also holding the low around $80,000. This is similar to the trend in 2023: at that time, Bitcoin formed a higher high on the weekly level, then retraced and held the original range. This may explain why the recent low time frame market seems so prone to triggering stop losses, with aggressive movements and traces of algorithmic trading.Bitcoin once reclaimed its internal structure in the $82,000 range, then retraced, broke the structure again, and then reclaimed it once more. The entire market seems to be deliberately enticing traders to enter. It must be acknowledged that the initial drop to the $81,000 range was not ideal from a structural perspective. However, there were a large number of shorts concentrated at the lows, which may explain the subsequent price reaction.Another detail worth noting is that during the drop from $84,100 to $81,000, only about $300 million in long positions were liquidated; whereas previously, during the drop from $86,800 to $80,600, the scale of long liquidations exceeded $2 billion. The significant decrease in long liquidation scale indicates that the current market's reliance on long positions may be lower than before. The current market situation is quite delicate. Bitcoin needs to form a higher low at the current position to initiate a new round of upward movement; otherwise, this pullback may bring the price below $80,000. As of now, the so-called "crash protection team" has done well in maintaining the price, but it is also continuously disrupting the internal oscillation range in the low time frame.

first_img Prediction market platform Kalshi releases trader composition study

The prediction market platform Kalshi's Kalshi Research released a report titled "Who Trades Prediction Markets?", with a subtitle focusing on community income, background, and probability reasoning, marked for publication in October 2026. The report studies the composition of prediction market traders, with data sourced from administrative records and surveys, and compares it to a general population sample.The administrative data covers the residential ZIP codes of each direct trader on Kalshi since January 2026, and aligns with the median household income from the American Community Survey. The survey was distributed in September 2026 to the highest profit and loss traders across various market categories, excluding sports and special categories, targeting 2,360 accounts, with 325 completed responses, resulting in a response rate of 13.8%.The report states that the median income reflected by traders' residential locations is close to the national level, with a modal range crossing $80,734, and only 6.3% residing in ZIP codes with median incomes above $150,000. Among the highest profit and loss traders, 82% have never worked full-time in investment banks, hedge funds, private equity, or proprietary trading firms, 91% are not full-time traders, and 65% claim to have learned about markets and probabilities primarily or entirely on their own. In comparison to 1,005 American adults, this group scored an average of 2.42/4 on the Berlin Mathematical Test, while the public scored 0.62, with a proportion of 93% resisting the gambler's fallacy, compared to 57% in the public.
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