Data: Retail inflow of BTC on Binance is about twice that of the whales, and whale inflow has decreased by 44.3% from recent highs

CryptoQuant analysis indicates that Binance's Bitcoin inflow data has shown significant divergence. The total inflow from whales over the past 30 days is $3.9 billion, a decrease of 44.3% from the peak of about $7 billion on June 12; retail inflows are $7.8 billion, a decrease of only 22% from about $10 billion on June 5. Retail inflows are currently about twice that of whales, with a gap of $3.9 billion.

The analysis points out that this divergence coincides with the eve of the Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting. Federal funds futures are currently pricing in about a 36% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike, with maintaining the target range of 3.5-3.75% being the more likely scenario. From the perspective of Bitcoin, an unexpected rate hike could support the dollar and Treasury yields, increasing volatility in risk assets; if the rate hike is paused with dovish guidance, it may partially alleviate macro pressures. The Federal Reserve's decision on Wednesday will be a key variable in testing whether this divergence continues or begins to converge.