Bitget UEX Daily Report｜Trump says the window for US-Iran negotiations is limited; Apple's market value surpasses Nvidia to regain the global top spot; US stocks mixed with pressure on storage and optical communication (July 28, 2026)

# 1. Hot News

Federal Reserve Dynamics

Trump pressures for rate cuts, Citadel Securities warns of unexpected rate hikes

• Trump stated that Federal Reserve Chairman Waller is excellent, but interest rates should be lowered further, and the U.S. should have the lowest rates in the world, while also claiming that costs are rapidly declining.
• Citadel Securities expects an unexpected rate hike of 25 basis points this week to strengthen anti-inflation credibility and end excessive reliance on forward guidance.
• Morgan Stanley data shows that investors have increased their long positions in dollars ahead of the interest rate meeting. Market impact: Trump's call for rate cuts coexists with hawkish rate hike warnings, increasing uncertainty in policy paths, providing short-term support for the dollar while suppressing valuations of risk assets.

International Commodities

U.S.-Iran conflict pause drives significant drop in oil prices

• Trump decided to pause strikes against Iran to buy time for negotiations, while emphasizing that if diplomacy fails, strong military action will resume, stating that the window of time is "limited."
• Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu arrived in the U.S. and is scheduled to meet with Trump on the 28th, intending to provide intelligence proving that Iran is still advancing its nuclear facilities and missile reconstruction. Market impact: Expectations of geopolitical easing quickly digest previous risk premiums, with crude oil significantly correcting, alleviating inflation concerns, but the risk of negotiation breakdown still exists, making market sentiment sensitive.

Macroeconomic Policy

Limited impact of tariffs, AI review framework approaching, CME launches individual stock futures

• The U.S. Trade Representative stated that the new Section 301 tariffs will not bring additional economic shocks beyond the current scope, covering the vast majority of imports.
• The Trump administration is close to finalizing a voluntary AI review framework, requiring cutting-edge models to be submitted to the government before release, with a deadline of August 1.
• CME launched 55 cash-settled individual stock futures and micro contracts for U.S. stocks, supporting 23-hour trading (including SpaceX, Micron, etc.). Market impact: Policy implementation reduces trade uncertainty, the AI regulatory framework may affect the pace of model releases, and individual stock futures extend leveraged trading hours.

# 2. Market Review

Commodity & Forex Performance

• Spot Gold: Approximately $4,052/ounce, -0.61%
• Spot Silver: Approximately $57.2/ounce, -2.04%
• WTI Crude Oil: Approximately $81.6/barrel, -1.15%
• Brent Crude Oil: Approximately $81.35/barrel, +0.78%
• Dollar Index (DXY): Approximately 101.47 points, -0.05%

Driving Factors Analysis: The pause in U.S.-Iran strikes and the resumption of negotiations quickly suppressed oil risk premiums, with both WTI and Brent significantly retreating, alleviating inflation concerns and benefiting risk assets. Gold and silver faced slight corrections under the backdrop of falling oil prices and a relatively strong dollar, with safe-haven demand cooling. The overall linkage logic is clear: geopolitical easing → oil price decline → cooling inflation expectations → increased discussion on Federal Reserve policy space, but Trump's "limited window" statement still keeps the market vigilant, and short-term commodity volatility will continue to revolve around negotiation progress.

Cryptocurrency Performance

• BTC: Approximately $63,232, -2.82%
• ETH: Approximately $1,875, -3.34%
• Total Cryptocurrency Market Cap: Approximately $2.27 trillion, -1.5%
• Market Liquidation Situation: Total liquidation in 24h approximately $677 million, long position liquidation approximately $533 million
• Bitget BTC/USDT liquidation map: Current price (63,162) has relatively small long and short liquidation pressure, while the $64,400--$66,500 range has a large number of high-leverage short liquidation points. If the price continues to rise, it may trigger a chain of short liquidations, further amplifying upward momentum. The accumulated liquidation leverage scale for longs below is significantly lower than that for shorts above (approximately $190 million vs. $620 million), indicating that current market short risk is more concentrated, and the volatility and short squeeze probability during short-term price upward breakthroughs are higher than during downward sell-offs.
• Spot ETF Net Inflow/Outflow: BTC spot ETF recently showed mixed trends, with a net outflow of $240 million last Friday, and a current 24h dynamic net outflow of $2.8 million.

Driving Factors Analysis: The drop in oil prices and geopolitical easing boosted risk appetite, stabilizing the overall cryptocurrency market, with ETH showing relatively strong performance indicating a rotation of funds towards high-beta assets. Leverage liquidation was primarily focused on short positions, reflecting short covering supporting prices. ETF fund flow remains volatile, indicating cautious institutional participation. On the macro level, the approaching Federal Reserve interest rate meeting and Trump's call for rate cuts form a game of expectations, while technically, BTC holds key support, with a short-term trend leaning towards oscillation and strength, focusing on the impact of negotiation progress and FOMC results on liquidity.

U.S. Stock Index Performance

• Dow Jones: Closed at 52,210 points (+0.51%), benefiting from the drop in oil prices boosting blue chips
• S&P 500: Closed at 7,413 points (+0.02%), barely ending a consecutive decline
• Nasdaq: Closed at 24,932 points (-0.18%), significantly dragged down by semiconductors

Tech Giants Dynamics

• NVDA: Approximately $196.5, -4.99%
• AAPL: Approximately $336.9, +1.17%
• MSFT: Approximately $389, +1.94%
• GOOGL: Approximately $326.6, +2.13%
• AMZN: Approximately $231.4, -0.31%
• META: Approximately $593.9, -0.22%
• TSLA: Approximately $309.2, -1.22%

Performance Summary and Driving Analysis: Significant differentiation within the tech sector. Apple regained its position as the world's number one by market cap due to solid performance, while Microsoft and Google also strengthened; Nvidia, however, significantly retreated due to concerns over AI infrastructure costs and competitive pressures, dragging down the Nasdaq. AI application software (Shopify, Palantir, etc.) continues to perform strongly, indicating that the market favors monetization over pure hardware narratives. The overall trend is supported by easing oil prices, but semiconductors and storage face pressure reflecting a reassessment of capital expenditures and supply-demand dynamics, with notable differences in individual stock drivers, avoiding a one-size-fits-all interpretation.

Sector Movement Observation

Storage Concept Plummets

• Representative stocks: SanDisk down over 11%, SK Hynix down over 7%, Western Digital and Seagate down over 4%
• Driving factors: Cooling demand and price expectations for storage, combined with overall chip sell-off sentiment.

AI Application Software Continues to Strengthen

• Representative stocks: Shopify up over 11%, Palantir up 7%, ServiceNow and Adobe up over 5%
• Driving factors: Software implementation capabilities and profit expectations are more favored by funds.

Optical Communication Leads Declines

• Representative stocks: Lumentum down nearly 7%, Coherent down nearly 4%
• Driving factors: The sector follows the tech sell-off, with concerns about capital expenditures spreading.

# 3. In-Depth Analysis of U.S. Stocks

1. Shopify (SHOP) - Up 11.54%, Leading AI Application Software

Event Overview: Shopify closed up 11.54% at $126.88, becoming the standout performer in the tech sector for the day. The overall strength of AI application software saw Shopify rise alongside Palantir, ServiceNow, Adobe, contrasting sharply with the chip and storage sectors. Market Interpretation: Funds are shifting from the "high investment, uncertain returns" narrative of AI infrastructure to "commercialized, higher visibility profits" in software and platforms. As a leader in e-commerce infrastructure, Shopify benefits from the demand for digitalization and AI tools embedded in business scenarios, with the market pricing its growth certainty significantly higher than purely computational power-related targets. This rotation reflects investors' preference for cash flow realization capabilities in a high-valuation environment. Investment Insight: Software applications may gain a premium in the short term, but caution is warranted regarding the pressure of earnings verification under high valuations, and attention should be paid to whether order and profit growth can match current expectations.

2. SanDisk (SNDK) - Down 11.02%, Weighing on the Storage Sector

Event Overview: SanDisk plummeted 11.02% to $1,278.23, leading the storage concept down. Western Digital, Seagate, and others also significantly retreated, with SK Hynix ADR down over 7%, putting overall pressure on the storage sector. Market Interpretation: Storage stocks surged in the first half of the year due to expectations of AI server demand, but have now entered a clear phase of profit-taking and expectation correction. The market is beginning to question whether AI-driven storage demand can support previously high prices and valuations in the short term, with expectations of supply-demand rebalancing rising. This contrasts sharply with the strength of software stocks, indicating that funds are retreating from a "long-term demand narrative" to a more cautious pricing approach. Investment Insight: The volatility of the storage cycle is intensifying, with short-term sentiment dominating; investors should observe inventory, price, and major customer capital expenditure guidance, avoiding simple bets on linear growth in AI demand.

3. Palantir (PLTR) - Up 7%, Continuing AI Software Strength

Event Overview: Palantir closed up 7% at $131.53, contributing to the strength of the AI application software sector alongside Shopify. Market Interpretation: Progress in AI deployment on the commercial and government sides is recognized by funds, with the market more willing to pay a premium for "implemented AI solutions" rather than remaining at the infrastructure construction stage. Palantir's commercialization path and contract visibility allow it to stand out amid the pullback in chip stocks, reflecting a significant differentiation between software and hardware. Investment Insight: The monetization logic of AI software is reinforced, but valuations remain high, necessitating continuous tracking of major customer order conversions and profit margin improvements.

4. AMD (AMD) - Down 5.17%, Following Chip Pullback

Event Overview: AMD fell 5.17% to $494.95, dragging down the semiconductor sector alongside Nvidia, putting pressure on the Nasdaq. Market Interpretation: The uncertainty surrounding the return cycle of capital expenditures for AI infrastructure has been repriced, with the market's optimistic expectations for future capital expenditure growth from large tech companies cooling. As an important player in GPU and data center chips, AMD is directly impacted by this sentiment shock. The structural differentiation within the sector, where "hardware is under pressure and software is strong," is further highlighted. Investment Insight: The long-term logic of AI computing demand remains unchanged, but short-term valuations and expenditure rhythms require stricter verification, with volatility likely to remain higher than for software application targets.

5. Lumentum (LITE) - Down Nearly 7%, Leading Declines in Optical Communication

Event Overview: Lumentum fell approximately 6.7%-7%, with the optical communication sector overall weakening, and Coherent also down over 4%. Market Interpretation: Demand for optical modules and high-speed interconnects is highly dependent on capital expenditures for AI data centers. When the market has doubts about the pace of AI infrastructure investment, optical communication, as an upstream sensitive link, is the first to feel the pressure. The sector's performance resonates with storage and chips, indicating that the entire AI hardware chain is entering a phase of expectation correction. Investment Insight: The sector is strongly correlated with AI infrastructure, and short-term sentiment is clearly dominant; attention should be paid to the visibility of subsequent capital expenditure guidance from cloud vendors and equipment manufacturers.

6. Apple (AAPL) - Market Cap Reclaims Global Number One

Event Overview: Apple's market cap rose to approximately $4.95 trillion, surpassing Nvidia's approximately $4.77 trillion, reclaiming the title of the world's highest market cap for the first time since April 2025. The stock price rose approximately 1.17% to $336.91, with earnings reports due this week. Market Interpretation: Against the backdrop of increased volatility in AI narratives, investors are reassigning higher premiums to companies with stable cash flows and continuous growth in service businesses. The market cap switch between Apple and Nvidia essentially reflects a rebalancing from "high growth but high uncertainty" to "certainty and profit quality." Investment Insight: The rotation of market cap reflects a phase change in risk preference, and Apple's earnings report will serve as an important window to validate the resilience of consumer electronics and service growth.

7. Nvidia (NVDA) - Concerns Over AI Infrastructure Costs Trigger Pullback

Event Overview: Nvidia fell approximately 4.99% to $196.51, with its market cap shrinking to approximately $4.77 trillion, and the AI chip sector overall weakening. Market Interpretation: The market is generating more doubts about the return cycle of massive capital expenditures, competitive landscape, and sustainability of customer spending, leading to a phase correction of the previously highly priced "long-term prosperity of AI infrastructure" narrative. This stands in stark contrast to Apple's market cap surpassing Nvidia, indicating that funds are leaning towards more certain assets. Investment Insight: The long-term logic of AI demand remains, but valuations and expenditure rhythms have entered a stricter scrutiny phase, with short-term volatility likely to be higher than the market average.

8. ASML - Following Semiconductor Equipment Pullback

Event Overview: ASML fell approximately 5.8%, following the weakness in semiconductor equipment and chip sectors. Market Interpretation: As a core supplier of advanced lithography equipment, ASML's order visibility is highly tied to customer capital expenditures. When the market has doubts about the growth rate of AI-related capital expenditures, equipment manufacturers often reflect this expectation change first. Its performance is linked with AMD, Nvidia, etc., reinforcing the signal of overall pressure on the hardware chain. Investment Insight: Long-term process upgrades and demand for advanced processes still have support, but short-term impacts are significantly influenced by tech sector sentiment and capital expenditure expectations, requiring close tracking of major customer guidance.

# 4. Market & Project Dynamics

1. According to data from ARK Invest's official website, Cathie Wood's Ark Invest bought 124,543 shares of SpaceX (SPCX) stock on Monday, worth approximately $14.14 million; it also bought 27,864 shares of Tesla (TSLA) stock, worth approximately $8.62 million.

2. Citadel Securities expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates at this week's meeting—this unexpected move will enhance the credibility of Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Waller in combating inflation. Frank Flight, the company's macro strategy chief, wrote in a report that if the Federal Reserve announces a 25 basis point rate hike on Wednesday, it will reinforce Waller's repeatedly emphasized commitment to restoring price stability, while also indicating that policymakers are no longer relying on advance signals to the market. Flight stated, "The market may again underestimate the extent of the Fed's hawkish shift. This week's rate hike 'will clearly end the era of forward guidance' while highlighting the Fed's independence." Flight believes that raising rates this week will have a greater impact than waiting until September to take action, as it will change market expectations regarding how the Fed addresses inflation.

3. SK Hynix (SKHY.O) American Depositary Receipts (ADR) fell to a new low since listing on Monday. The stock previously debuted on the U.S. market earlier this month with a fundraising scale of $26.5 billion, but as investors continued to withdraw from the overvalued semiconductor sector, its stock price significantly retreated. During the day, it fell as much as 10% to $139.01, far below the issuance price of $149, and ultimately closed at $143.02.

4. According to research data released by Grayscale, the inflow of HYPE ETF is accelerating based on asset market capitalization ratio, outperforming BTC, ETH, SOL, and XRP. Grayscale pointed out that Bitcoin's inflow is the most stable, Ethereum has seen dramatic peaks, Solana and XRP showed healthy inflows early on, while HYPE has outperformed Bitcoin, Solana, and XRP at the same lifecycle stage.

5. Since its peak of $225.64 in June, SpaceX has lost over $1.2 trillion in market value, almost equivalent to the market cap of Tesla, another company owned by its founder Elon Musk. On Monday, SpaceX fell for the 13th time in the last 16 trading days, closing at $113.50, down over 1%. In the options market, retail investors are still buying large amounts of nearly impossible-to-exercise call options, attempting to bet on a rapid rebound in the stock. SpaceX's first earnings report will be released next week, and the lock-up period for approximately 911.5 million internal shares will begin to expire on August 6, accounting for about 20% of the total share capital. Traders believe that the unlocking of the lock-up period may not be as severe as the market fears, but it will not support the stock price.

6. On Monday local time, Apple surpassed Nvidia to become the world's most valuable company for the first time since April 2025. Nvidia's stock price fell nearly 5% on Monday, with its market cap dropping to $4.77 trillion due to investor concerns over the massive costs of AI infrastructure construction, leading to an overall decline in the AI chip sector. Meanwhile, Apple's stock price rose 1%, reaching a market cap of $4.95 trillion, with the company set to release its highly anticipated earnings report on Thursday. Nvidia has maintained its position as the world's number one by market cap since taking it from Microsoft in June 2025, briefly touching a market cap of $5 trillion last October. So far in 2026, Nvidia's stock price has only risen 4%, while Apple's has increased by 24%. Apple's performance has outpaced the market, as it remains cautious in AI capital expenditures, preferring to lease computing power rather than build infrastructure, a strategy that has been well received by investors.

7. Bitcoin maintained around $65,000 on Monday, rising about 4% over the past few days, while Ethereum reached a nearly two-month high, as AI-related tech stocks faced downward pressure. Analysts say that this week's Federal Reserve policy decision, inflation data, and earnings reports from tech giants will determine whether Bitcoin can break through its trading range of several months or fall back to June lows.

LMAX Group market strategist stated that the resilience of the cryptocurrency market during traditional market volatility is encouraging, supporting the view that digital assets are beginning to decouple from traditional risk assets. Technically, Bitcoin needs to break through $67,300 to exit the consolidation range since June, while Ethereum faces key resistance at $2,000. Tom Lee, chairman of Bitmine, pointed out that the ETH/BTC ratio rising to a three-month high is a bullish signal. However, a senior research analyst at Nansen believes that the rebound lacks strong buying support, with Bitcoin futures open interest declining and order book data indicating net selling pressure, still expecting a potential drop to the $52,000-$58,000 range unless market conditions improve. The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and core PCE data will be key catalysts this week.

# 5. Today's Market Calendar

Data Release Schedule

|-------|----|-------------|-------| | This Wednesday | U.S. | Federal Reserve FOMC interest rate meeting | ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ | | Pre/Post Market | U.S. | Earnings reports from Corning, Coca-Cola, etc. | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |

July 28 (Tuesday)

1. U.S. to release ADP employment change for the week ending July 11
2. Boeing, Corning, Coca-Cola to release earnings reports before market opens
3. ★★★Bloom Energy, KLA, Seagate Technology, Visa to release earnings reports after market closes (focus on AI/storage and payment demand) July 29 (Wednesday)
4. ★★★★★ Microsoft, Meta to release earnings reports after market closes (market's core focus on AI capital expenditure returns, cloud business growth, and advertising recovery)
5. ★★★★ Qualcomm, Arm, Robinhood to release earnings reports after market closes
6. ★★★★★ SK Hynix to release Q2 earnings report (key verification for AI storage/HBM) July 30 (Thursday)
7. ★★★★★ Federal Reserve to announce interest rate decision, market expects no change, followed by a press conference by Chairman Waller; focus on statements regarding future interest rate paths and whether to restart rate hikes in September; current inflation pressures coexist with tariff uncertainties
8. ★★★★★ U.S. to release June core PCE price index, preliminary annualized quarterly GDP for Q2, and initial jobless claims for the week
9. ★★★★★ Apple, Amazon to release earnings reports, testing the effectiveness of AI commercialization
10. ★★★★ Samsung Electronics to release complete Q2 earnings report (storage and AI chips)
11. ★★★ Coinbase, Strategy to release earnings reports after market closes July 31 (Friday)
12. ★★★★ Kioxia to release earnings report (closing out the three major storage companies in Japan and South Korea)
13. U.S. to release July Chicago PMI, final Michigan University Consumer Confidence Index

• This week's core themes in U.S. stocks revolve around signals from the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, tariff uncertainties, PCE inflation data, and earnings reports from AI giants like Microsoft, Meta, Apple, and Amazon, with expected increased market volatility.

Institutional Views:

Analysts generally believe that the U.S.-Iran pause in strikes has significantly alleviated inflation concerns, providing breathing room for risk assets, benefiting the Dow. However, institutions like Citadel Securities warn that the Federal Reserve may unexpectedly raise rates this week, and the market is underestimating the risks of a hawkish shift. The tech sector is experiencing increased differentiation, with Apple's market cap surpassing reflecting a rising preference for certainty, while Nvidia's pullback highlights concerns over AI capital expenditure returns. The cryptocurrency market has stabilized amid easing oil prices, with ETH outperforming BTC indicating rotation, but ETF fund flow volatility and the approaching FOMC necessitate caution in the short term. The overall consensus is that geopolitical easing is favorable for short-term sentiment, but policy and negotiation uncertainties will dominate volatility.

Disclaimer: The above content is compiled by AI search, with human verification for publication, and should not be considered as any investment advice. The data in the text may inevitably contain deviations; please refer to real-time market data.