Fu Peng: AI infrastructure stocks have shown characteristics of "old Deng stocks," while liquidity assets like Bitcoin may complete valuation clearance ahead of the stock market

Chief Economist of Bitfire Group, Fu Peng, stated that the AI industry is currently in a transitional period from the midstream to the downstream. The infrastructure layer, represented by Nvidia, has entered a mature stage, displaying characteristics of established stocks. However, the downstream application layer has yet to see a milestone breakthrough similar to ChatGPT. The next 10 to 18 months will be a transitional period for the industry cycle. He indicated that the competition in the second half of AI will no longer be about the story of repeatedly burning money to build infrastructure, but rather whether AI, as an efficiency tool, can generate stable payments, profits, and diffusion after entering real industries.

He also mentioned that current market funds are following a logic of narrowing focus, prioritizing the elimination of speculative assets that are peripheral, highly elastic, and lack cash flow support, while continuously concentrating on the most core and highest certainty targets. Pure liquidity assets at the denominator end, such as Bitcoin, often digest valuation pressure before traditional stock markets.

He further noted that DRAM and HBM storage are ultimately commodities, subject to the laws of commodity cycles. When the industry fundamentals are extremely certain and volatility drops to very low levels, the excessive accumulation of off-market financial leverage often becomes an invisible killer that triggers a sharp decline. Even when a company's fundamentals are sound, prices can fluctuate dramatically during deleveraging.