SemiAnalysis: AMD has reached a performance-based warrant agreement with Meta and OpenAI, involving a maximum deployment of 6GW Instinct GPUs

According to SemiAnalysis, AMD reached a performance-based warrant agreement with Meta and OpenAI from the end of last year to the beginning of this year. The warrants will vest in batches based on the two companies' procurement and deployment of up to 6GW of AMD Instinct GPUs, while AMD's stock price must exceed a tiered target (up to $600).

As AMD's stock price has risen from around $200 in early 2026 to the current $500-600, SemiAnalysis estimates that the GPU capital costs for Meta and OpenAI have decreased from about $2.15/hour and $2.50/hour to approximately $1.60/hour and $1.75/hour, respectively. If AMD's stock price rises to $600-700, the capital cost of the GPUs themselves will approach zero; if it further exceeds $1000, the total capital cost of the entire cluster (including servers, networks, and CPUs) will effectively be zero for both companies. This analysis is based on the assumption of linear vesting and the premise that the entire 6GW capacity is deployed, and the specific terms of the warrants have not been disclosed.