Bitget UEX Daily Report｜Trump says the Strait of Hormuz may reopen by tomorrow at the latest; Amazon's market value surpasses $3 trillion for the first time; Palantir's performance greatly exceeds expectations (August 4, 2026)

# 1. Hot News

Federal Reserve Dynamics

Castle Securities: The forces driving the US stock market to new highs remain solid

• Scott Rubner, head of equity and derivatives strategy at Castle Securities, pointed out that after a cooling of retail speculation, the forces driving the US stock market to record highs are still "solidly present," with the market shifting from a capital flow-driven approach to one dominated by earnings, corporate demand, and macroeconomic context.
• The asset size of leveraged ETFs has decreased by 28% to $154 billion, and the decline in financing costs indicates reduced pressure on Wall Street.
• Recent strong earnings continue to exceed expectations, making valuations more attractive, and buyback demand is expected to accelerate after the earnings blackout period ends.

Market Impact: Institutions believe that the fundamental support remains, which helps stabilize risk appetite, but sensitivity to the Federal Reserve's policy path remains high. Short-term volatility depends on subsequent data and geopolitical developments.

International Commodities

Trump states that the Strait of Hormuz may reopen by tomorrow at the latest, oil prices fall sharply

• On August 3, Trump stated that the first phase of negotiations with Iran is to open the Strait of Hormuz, and the second phase is denuclearization, asserting that the US stance is firm and Iran cannot possess nuclear weapons; he also mentioned that the Strait of Hormuz may reopen by tomorrow at the latest.
• Trump claimed that negotiations have begun, with more talks expected in the coming days, while criticizing Iran for publicly denying discussions while claiming control over the Strait; he pointed out that the Strait is currently under the blockade of the US Navy.
• Mohsen Rezaei, military advisor to Iran's Supreme Leader, responded that Iran will never allow the US to establish non-Iranian shipping routes in the Strait of Hormuz, and that even deploying warships will be targeted.

Market Impact: Expectations of geopolitical easing quickly lowered the risk premium for crude oil, with WTI and Brent prices falling sharply. The actual progress of negotiations and the situation of navigation in the Strait remain core variables for short-term oil prices; if an agreement is reached, it will further alleviate inflation concerns.

Macroeconomic Policy

White House plans to hold AI business meeting, 25 states sue over tariff measures

• The White House plans to hold a meeting for AI companies on Tuesday, inviting representatives from OpenAI, Google, Anthropic, Meta, and others to review the completed voluntary safety testing framework for AI and discuss next steps.
• 25 states in the US have filed a lawsuit opposing the government's latest tariff measures, claiming they exceed statutory authority and bypass investigation procedures.
• Japan's latest round of intervention in the yen may have cost about $87 billion.

Market Impact: The advancement of the AI regulatory framework helps reduce long-term uncertainty; the tariff lawsuit increases the variability of policy implementation; US-Japan coordinated intervention helps stabilize short-term foreign exchange market expectations.

# 2. Market Review

Commodity & Forex Performance (Real-time Update)

• Spot Gold: Approximately $4,050/ounce, +0.2%
• Spot Silver: Approximately $58.0/ounce, +0.14%
• WTI Crude Oil: Approximately $80.3/barrel, +0.61%
• Brent Crude Oil: Approximately $79.58/barrel, +0.45%
• US Dollar Index (DXY): Approximately 100.026, +0.07%

Driving Factors Analysis: Trump's statement that "the Strait of Hormuz may reopen tomorrow" significantly lowered the risk premium for crude oil, with both WTI and Brent prices falling sharply, alleviating short-term inflation concerns. Gold and silver showed divergent performance against the backdrop of falling oil prices and relative stability of the dollar, with safe-haven demand cooling. The asset linkage logic is clear: geopolitical easing → falling oil prices → marginal cooling of inflation expectations → recovery of risk appetite. Short-term commodity volatility will heavily depend on the actual progress of US-Iran negotiations and the situation of navigation in the Strait.

Cryptocurrency Performance

• BTC: Approximately $62,420, +0.2%
• ETH: Approximately $1,850, -1.14%
• Total Cryptocurrency Market Cap: Approximately $2.27 trillion, +1.1%
• Market Liquidation Situation: Total liquidation in 24h approximately $244 million, with short positions liquidating $128 million.
• Bitget BTC/USDT Liquidation Map: Significant differentiation in long and short liquidation leverage appears around BTC $63,388: cumulative liquidation scale for long positions below is about $25 million, while cumulative liquidation scale for short positions above has risen to about $13 million. The current price area above $64,000--$65,500 has dense short liquidation; if it continues to rise, it may trigger a "short squeeze"; below $62,000--$63,000, there is significant liquidation pressure on long positions.
• Spot ETF Net Inflow/Outflow: BTC spot ETF saw a net outflow of $265 million yesterday, with current dynamic net inflow of $58 million.

Driving Factors Analysis: Geopolitical easing and the rebound of US tech stocks boosted risk appetite, but the cryptocurrency market's performance lagged, with BTC and ETH experiencing slight pullbacks. The scale of leveraged liquidations has significantly decreased, with long and short forces tending to balance. Weak ETF fund flows limit upward elasticity. On the macro level, expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate hikes remain, and short-term fluctuations may maintain a volatile pattern, focusing on the impact of US-Iran negotiations on risk asset sentiment.

US Stock Index Performance

• Dow Jones: Closed at 53,178.41 points (+1.32%), reaching a new high for the phase.
• S&P 500: Closed at 7,600.50 points (+1.48%), showing a strong rebound.
• Nasdaq: Closed at 25,913.90 points (+2.13%), driven by a surge in tech stocks.

Tech Giants Dynamics

• NVDA: $206.64 (+2.93%)
• AAPL: $303.42 (-1.78%)
• MSFT: $487.65 (+4.93%)
• GOOGL: $373.51 (+4.88%)
• AMZN: $284.02 (+4.58%)
• META: $590.24 (+6.02%)
• TSLA: $322.08 (+3.49%)

Performance Summary and Driving Analysis: On Monday, all three major US stock indices rose, with the seven tech giants index soaring 3.6%, marking the best single-day performance since the end of March. Amazon's market value first surpassed $3 trillion, with Meta rising over 6%, Microsoft and Google nearly 5%, and Nvidia and Tesla following suit. The overall drive was fueled by geopolitical easing and the recovery of AI sentiment, with cloud and large tech leading the charge, while Apple lagged relatively. Market confidence in the return on AI investments has further recovered, but stock differentiation remains.

Sector Movement Observation

Cloud Computing / Large Tech

• Representative Stocks: Amazon (+around 5%, market value surpassing $3 trillion), Meta (+6%), Microsoft/Google (+5%)
• Driving Factors: Geopolitical easing and the continuation of previous earnings realization, with funds continuously flowing into "earnings realization" targets.

Optical Communication / Compound Semiconductors

• Representative Stocks: Applied Optoelectronics (+17%), AXT Inc (+14%), Lumentum/Coherent (+9%)
• Driving Factors: Expectations for AI data center optical module demand recovery, with strong rebounds after overselling.

AI Application Software

• Representative Stocks: Reddit (+10%), Snowflake (+5%), Palantir (surging after hours)
• Driving Factors: The narrative of software implementation is favored, with Palantir's earnings exceeding expectations further boosting sentiment.

# 3. In-depth Analysis of US Stocks

1. Amazon (AMZN) - Market value first surpasses $3 trillion

Event Overview: Amazon's stock price surged about 4.6%--5.6% on Monday, with its total market value first exceeding $3 trillion. It had previously completed a total investment of $50 billion in OpenAI, holding about 5%, while AWS cloud business continues to grow strongly. Market Interpretation: The market value milestone reflects high recognition of long-term demand for cloud and AI infrastructure. Funds continue to provide a dual premium for "earnings realization + strategic positioning," contrasting sharply with previous fluctuations in chip and storage stocks due to concerns over capital expenditure returns. Cloud service providers receive more stable funding support due to quantifiable revenue growth and clear commercialization paths. Investment Insight: The matching of cloud business growth rate and capital expenditure remains a key observation point. After the market value breakthrough, attention should be paid to the pace of valuation digestion and whether AWS can continue to absorb higher levels of investment.

2. Palantir (PLTR) - Earnings greatly exceed expectations, surging over 14% after hours

Event Overview: Q2 revenue was $1.94 billion (expected $1.81 billion), with adjusted EPS of $0.41 (expected $0.35), both significantly exceeding expectations. The company raised its full-year revenue guidance to $8.15--$8.16 billion, and adjusted operating profit guidance to $4.89--$4.9 billion. The stock price surged over 14% after hours. Market Interpretation: Progress in AI deployment for commercial and government sectors has received high recognition from funds. Both earnings and guidance exceeding expectations significantly strengthen the narrative of "monetizing AI software," contrasting with hardware chains still under pressure from return cycle concerns. The market is more willing to pay a premium for software revenue that has been implemented and can be verified. Investment Insight: The path to AI software implementation is receiving more attention, but valuations remain high. Continuous tracking of subsequent order visibility and the sustainability of profit improvements is necessary.

3. Meta (META) - Surging over 6%, following tech rebound

Event Overview: Meta's stock price surged about 5.2%--6% on Monday, benefiting from the overall recovery in tech risk appetite and the repair of AI-related sentiment. Market Interpretation: After a previous pullback due to concerns over future spending commitments nearing $700 billion, a clear recovery has emerged. The market is beginning to reassess its long-term investments and the resilience of its advertising business, believing that high investments will ultimately translate into user and revenue growth. Investment Insight: Capital expenditure discipline and AI monetization efficiency remain core to pricing. Attention should be focused on subsequent advertising profit margins, user growth, and the contribution of AI features to actual revenue.

4. Google (GOOGL) - Rising nearly 5%, market value rises to second globally

Event Overview: Google's stock price rose about 4.7%--5%, with its total market value surpassing Apple to become the second largest globally (approximately $4.51 trillion). Market Interpretation: Search and cloud businesses have regained fund attention, with AI-related sentiment repair driving valuation recovery. With strong performances from cloud giants like Amazon and Microsoft, the market has higher expectations for its advertising recovery and progress on self-developed TPU. Investment Insight: AI commercialization and advertising business recovery remain core to medium- and long-term pricing. Tracking the growth rate of cloud business and the implementation and monetization efficiency of self-developed chips like TPU is necessary.

5. Nvidia (NVDA) - Following the rebound, rising nearly 3%

Event Overview: Nvidia's stock price rose about 2.9%--3%, with its market value again surpassing $5 trillion. Market Interpretation: Benefiting from the realization of cloud vendors' performance and the boost in tech sentiment from geopolitical easing, but as a core hardware supplier, its stock price remains highly sensitive to downstream capital expenditure return cycles, with the rebound being relatively restrained. Compared to cloud service providers with "realized revenue," Nvidia relies more on major clients to continue increasing spending. Investment Insight: The long-term logic of AI computing power demand remains unchanged, but short-term fluctuations still depend on major clients' capital expenditure guidance and competitive landscape evolution, requiring vigilance against profit-taking after sentiment recovery.

# 4. Market & Project Dynamics

1. The Solana Foundation is hiring for multiple senior positions, including Head of Stablecoins, General Manager of AI Ecosystem, Head of Institutional Growth for Greater China, Head of Institutional Growth for Japan, and Head of DeFi Growth, marking its strategic focus on expanding into AI, stablecoins, and the Asian institutional market.

2. Michael Saylor, founder of Strategy, posted on the X platform: "When I say 'never sell your Bitcoin,' I am speaking as a depositor to another depositor. I have never sold my Bitcoin, not a single satoshi. Strategy is a publicly traded company, not my personal wallet. Since 2020, the company has disclosed that it may buy or sell BTC for capital management. Our shared belief in Bitcoin remains unchanged."

3. SK Hynix announced on the 4th that the company has partnered with SanDisk to jointly release the first standard specification for the next-generation storage technology, High Bandwidth Flash (HBF). It is reported that this standard specification is the first result launched after about six months of collaboration, following SK Hynix's initiation of HBF standardization cooperation with SanDisk in August last year and the establishment of an alliance in February this year. The specification defines two capacity configurations using 8-layer and 16-layer NAND chip stacking, supporting a maximum capacity of 512GB; and sets bandwidth standard data transmission capabilities covering approximately 0.4TB/s to 3.0TB/s across three grades (Grade 1~3).

4. With the strong release of blockbuster films "Spider-Man: A New Day" and "Odyssey," it proves that high-quality films in the summer season are effectively driving audiences back to the big screen, leading to a rise in cinema operators' stock prices on Monday.

5. Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Walsh stated that Bitcoin can provide market discipline and expressed that he wished he had understood Bitcoin's transformative potential earlier. (Bitcoin Archive)

# 5. Today's Market Calendar

Data Release Schedule

|----|----|--------------------|------| | After Hours | US | Earnings reports from SpaceX, AMD, Caterpillar, etc. | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | | This Week | US | Relevant economic data | ⭐⭐⭐ |

Important Event Forecast

August 4 (Tuesday)

1. The US will release June JOLTS job openings, trade balance, and factory orders;
2. ★★★★★ AMD will release its earnings report after hours, a key verification of AI chip demand;
3. ★★★★★ SpaceX will release its first earnings report post-IPO after hours;
4. McDonald's, Caterpillar, and Pfizer will release earnings reports before the market opens. August 5 (Wednesday)
5. The US will release July ADP employment report and ISM non-manufacturing PMI;
6. ★★★★ Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk will release earnings reports before the market opens, revealing the latest landscape of the weight-loss drug market;
7. ★★★★ SanDisk and Western Digital will release earnings reports after hours, focusing on enterprise SSD, HBM, and data center storage demand;
8. ★★★ Circle, Disney (before market opens), AppLovin, Figma, IonQ (after hours) will release earnings reports. August 6 (Thursday)
9. The US will release initial jobless claims and Challenger layoffs data for the week;
10. ★★★★★ SpaceX will have a large-scale unlocking of approximately 9.115 billion shares, with a potential market value of nearly $100 billion, setting a record for a single unlocking in US stocks, testing liquidity;
11. Federal Reserve officials Musalem and Barkin will give speeches;
12. ★★★ AAOI and MP will release earnings reports after hours. August 7 (Friday)
13. ★★★★★ The US will release July non-farm payroll data (expected to increase by 90,000, previous value 57,000), and unemployment rate (expected 4.3%, previous value 4.2%), exceeding 100,000 or boosting confidence in the labor market and raising bets on a rate hike in September;
14. The US will release New York Fed's 1-year inflation expectations and other data;
15. ★★★ OKLO and VST (before market opens) will release earnings reports.
    *This week's core themes in US stocks revolve around July non-farm payroll data, signals from Federal Reserve officials, SpaceX's first earnings report and large-scale unlocking, as well as earnings tests from AMD, SanDisk, and Western Digital related to AI storage, with expected increased market volatility.

Institutional Views:

Analysts generally believe that Trump's statement about "the Strait of Hormuz possibly reopening tomorrow" significantly lowered the risk premium for crude oil, alleviating inflation concerns and providing support for risk assets. Amazon's market value surpassing $3 trillion and Palantir's earnings exceeding expectations further validate the path to AI commercialization, restoring sentiment in the tech sector. Castle Securities pointed out that the forces driving the US stock market to new highs remain solid, with the market shifting towards earnings-driven dynamics. The cryptocurrency market's performance lags relatively, with weak ETF fund flows. The overall consensus is that geopolitical easing and earnings realization have become the current mainline, requiring close tracking of negotiation outcomes and subsequent earnings reports.

Disclaimer: The above content is compiled by AI search, with human verification for publication, and should not be considered as any investment advice. Data in the text may inevitably contain deviations; please refer to real-time market data.