Counterpoint: If the United States bans imports of Chinese optical modules, it will backfire on domestic cloud vendors rather than just Chinese suppliers

According to Counterpoint Research analysis, if the proposed import ban on Chinese optical modules by the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) in the United States is implemented, it will primarily impact American cloud providers rather than Chinese suppliers. InnoLight leads the global data center optical module revenue with approximately 27% market share, while Coherent ranks second with about 17%. Chinese manufacturers collectively account for about two-thirds of the global unit supply and approximately 60% of the optical communication module revenue.

The analysis points out that Western suppliers like Coherent and Lumentum lack sufficient cleanroom capacity, automated packaging infrastructure, and yield scale in the short term, making it impossible to fill the capacity gap left by Chinese manufacturers within 12-24 months. This could lead to delays in AI cluster deployments by several quarters and increase material costs for cloud providers. At the same time, Chinese module manufacturers rely on high-end 800G/1.6T module revenue from North American hyperscale customers for over 90%, but have achieved partial capacity relocation by establishing factories in Thailand.

Counterpoint emphasizes that the optical module supply chain is a highly interdependent system. Chinese manufacturers heavily procure DSP chips from Broadcom and Marvell, as well as lasers and optical chips from Lumentum, Coherent, and Mitsubishi Electric. A forced separation would disrupt the entire ecosystem.