Analyst: Bitcoin's volatility has dropped to historical support levels, and we need to be wary of the hidden risk of severe fluctuations

According to CoinDesk, Bitcoin's implied volatility on the 30th fell to a long-term support level of 36%, with the price maintaining a narrow range below $65,000. Adam Haeems, head of asset management at Tesseract Group, reminded that a low-volatility environment will lower trading costs, thereby encouraging traders to establish large directional bets and hedge positions; once the market breaks through key price levels, the passive hedging behavior of market makers will amplify market fluctuations, driving a mean-reversion rebound in volatility.

On the market sentiment front, Paul-Howard, Senior Director at Wincent, stated that the current demand for put options has significantly cooled, but there is also a lack of buying interest for call options. Glassnode summarized this state as "there is neither capital to buy into the rise nor capital to buy into the fall," believing that this phenomenon often represents the market nearing a cyclical bottom. The divergence in the trends of Dogecoin and Bitcoin also indirectly reflects the continued low speculative sentiment.

Howard believes that favorable regulatory advances like the Clarity Act, which drive institutional ETF capital inflows, may become an important catalyst for the next round of market movements; while the failure of negotiations in the Strait of Hormuz and inflation exceeding expectations pose major downside risks.