CryptoQuant founder admits mistake, misinterprets CME positions, leveraged funds still maintain net short positions in BTC

CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju posted on the X platform, correcting the previous analysis of CME Bitcoin futures positions, stating that "Total Reportables (large institutional traders)" was mistakenly labeled as "Leveraged Funds," leading to the belief that CME hedge funds rarely turned into net long positions in BTC futures. However, the actual situation is that leveraged funds still maintain net short positions in BTC futures.

Ki Young Ju provided CFTC futures position data as of August 4: 1. Large institutional traders overall show a slight net long position, which includes asset management institutions, market makers, dealers, etc. Ki Young Ju stated that although the net long extent is limited, the previous judgment about institutional direction being bullish still holds. 2. Leveraged funds still maintain net short positions in BTC futures, but over the past year, their standard BTC futures net short position has decreased by about 50% (measured in BTC), mainly due to the decline in basis trading returns. When the futures basis returns fell below U.S. Treasury yields, the arbitrage space narrowed. Leveraged funds currently show a net long position in Micro BTC futures, but the scale is small, only about +394 BTC, which is approximately 1% of the standard BTC futures net short position. Ki Young Ju indicated that leveraged funds overall have not yet turned into net long positions, but their long-term structural shorts are clearly weakening, which may reflect the closing of arbitrage trades and adjustments in directional positions.