10x Research: Bitcoin may break its correlation with the S&P 500, and if summer employment weakens, Bitcoin and gold are expected to benefit

According to ChainCatcher news, analysis from 10x Research suggests that Bitcoin may be decoupling from its correlation with the S&P 500. If the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates in September due to weak summer employment, Bitcoin is expected to become a major beneficiary alongside gold. The analysis states that after the FOMC meeting at the end of July 2026, bond traders were once convinced that the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates in September, with the market pricing in two rate hikes before the end of the year. However, the institution believes that four voters who leaned towards maintaining interest rates in July suddenly shifted to a higher threshold for rate hikes within six weeks.

More importantly, seasonal factors play a role; historically, the labor market has performed poorly in the summer, which has previously driven rate cuts in September 2024 and September 2025. With the World Cup ending, similar employment weakness may force bond market traders to reassess their rate hike expectations, at which point gold and Bitcoin are expected to benefit.