Goldman Sachs raises 2026 WFE forecast to $150 billion

Goldman Sachs' research report on August 23 pointed out that the forecast for wafer front-end equipment (WFE) for 2026 to 2028 has been raised to $150 billion, $218 billion, and $281 billion, which is an increase of 6%, 17%, and 35% respectively compared to previous forecasts. The adjusted year-on-year growth rates for the next three years are 36%, 45%, and 29%, while the previous expectations were 28%, 32%, and 12%.

Goldman Sachs believes that DRAM and advanced process foundry are the main short-term drivers. In the DRAM sector, capital expenditure forecasts for Samsung and SK Hynix have been raised by 22% and 19% respectively, with HBM4 mass production driving demand for etching, deposition, and other equipment; in the foundry sector, TSMC's annual capital expenditure has been revised up by $8 billion, and the N2 process is entering the mass production ramp-up phase. NAND and logic/others (including Terafab) will take over in the medium term, and the approximately $16.8 billion initial phase equipment investment promised by SpaceX and Tesla has been included in the WFE forecast.

Goldman Sachs is bullish on global semiconductor equipment stocks, with a focus on recommending Applied Materials, Lam Research, ASML, Tokyo Electron, ASMI, BESI, Lasertec, and Ebara.