Arthur Hayes: If the U.S. Treasury increases liquidity injection, it may drive Bitcoin to start a new round of上涨

BitMEX co-founder and Maelstrom CIO Arthur Hayes stated that U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent may expand the buyback of government bonds and increase the issuance of short-term Treasury bills to suppress long-term U.S. Treasury yields, and utilize funds from the Treasury General Account (TGA) to release liquidity. Hayes believes that such "proactive fiscal issuance" operations are similar to Yellen's approach in 2023, which guided money market fund funds away from the Federal Reserve's reverse repurchase tool through the issuance of short-term debt, and previously drove up risk assets and Bitcoin.

Hayes pointed out that if the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield approaches or exceeds 5%, it will significantly raise costs for residential mortgages, corporate financing, and may prompt the Treasury to further intervene in the bond market. He expects that if U.S. dollar liquidity continues to expand, Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency market are likely to benefit, but there may still be significant corrections during this period.