South Korea's DRAM export prices surged 401% year-on-year in August, and Hynix stated that next year may be the year with the shortest supply of memory

According to South Korea's Chosun Ilbo, the export prices of DRAM in South Korea continue to soar, with AI-driven HBM production squeezing the supply of ordinary memory. Data shows that from the 1st to the 20th of this month, the export unit price of DRAM from South Korea reached $92,183 per kilogram, a year-on-year increase of 401%, and approximately 12.5 times higher than the low point in January 2023.

Goldman Sachs expects the DRAM supply gap to widen from 5.0% this year to 5.9% next year, believing that the HBM required for AI servers and high-capacity server DRAM are absorbing limited production capacity, leading to further tightening of ordinary DRAM supply, with shortages potentially lasting until 2028. TrendForce predicts that by the end of next year, the wafer input for HBM production by Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron will account for 30% of the total DRAM wafer input, but HBM will only account for about 13% of the actual DRAM bit supply.

Memory manufacturers warn that the supply tightness of DRAM and NAND driven by AI demand may continue until after 2027. SK Hynix stated that from the supply side, 2027 could become the most severe shortage year in the history of the memory industry.