Former Vice Chairman of the Federal Reserve: The default choice now is to raise interest rates, and Waller's speech reverses the previous logic of the Federal Reserve

Nick Timiraos, the "Fed Whisperer," stated that Fed Chair Waller has quelled some concerns about his strategy to combat inflation, but has also laid the groundwork for a larger test that may come in three weeks. If the Fed raises interest rates, it could anger the White House just weeks before the midterm elections. If they hold steady, it may reignite the doubts that Waller's remarks have calmed.

Two points from Waller's speech on Friday particularly suggest that the Fed may raise rates next month. The first point is that Waller finds it difficult to describe the current financial conditions as restrictive. The second point is that the relatively positive inflation data over the summer has not convinced him that the underlying trend is improving. The Fed's default choice before Friday was to hold steady unless the data was strong enough to warrant action.

Former Fed Vice Chair Cohen stated that Waller's remarks have reversed this logic. "He has changed the original assumption; it is now that they will raise rates unless the data shows it is unnecessary." This means that the final decision will depend on changes in the situation before the September meeting, especially the August CPI released on September 11. Cohen stated that if the data indicates that action is unnecessary, the Fed should not raise rates; if the data is strong, it could weaken the argument that inflation is moving back toward the Fed's 2% target.