UBS: It will be difficult for China to develop EUV lithography equipment comparable to ASML's top products within the next ten years; DUV mass production may take two to five years

According to Bloomberg, UBS analysts expect that China's semiconductor manufacturing capabilities may struggle to make sufficient progress in the next decade to develop solutions that can truly replace ASML's advanced EUV lithography technology. UBS analysts wrote in their report, "The stage they are currently at seems comparable to ASML's in 2004." Based on patent application activities, especially in the fields of light sources and laser subsystems, China's current technological maturity is roughly equivalent to ASML's level 15 years before it began mass production of EUV equipment.

UBS also expects that China is likely to achieve large-scale production capabilities for immersion DUV lithography machines within the next two to five years. While immersion DUV is not as advanced as EUV, it remains an indispensable tool for chip manufacturing. ASML's immersion DUV machines are priced at nearly $90 million, while EUV equipment costs over $200 million each. China is one of ASML's largest markets, but due to export restrictions, ASML is prohibited from selling EUV equipment to China. UBS pointed out that considering the yield and capacity gaps, as well as regulatory restrictions, Chinese lithography equipment is unlikely to be applied overseas. An ASML spokesperson did not respond to requests for comment. This report is based on UBS analysts' predictive views, and actual progress will depend on industry dynamics.