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first_img Analysis: China may have stockpiled 343 immersion deep ultraviolet lithography machines

According to the South China Morning Post, former U.S. officials stated that Chinese semiconductor factories have stockpiled hundreds of immersion lithography machines worth billions of dollars in recent years and urged Washington and its allies to stop further exports. The Centre for Technology & Statecraft, established in August 2026, released a report in late September estimating that by early 2026, Chinese wafer fabs had acquired approximately 343 immersion deep ultraviolet lithography systems. The report was co-authored by former U.S. export control official Nicholas Brown and former White House and Department of Commerce technology policy advisor Saif Khan.The report estimates that about 270 of these are ASML Twinscan NXT:1980i. The authors claim that although these devices lag behind extreme ultraviolet lithography machines, they can be modified for the production of 7-nanometer logic chips and advanced memory required for artificial intelligence processors (including Huawei's Ascend series). Chinese wafer fabs spent over $13 billion in 2024 to purchase about 90 NXT:1980i units, and acquired another 89 units in 2025. ASML disclosed that, by destination, China accounted for 41% of its net system sales in 2024, 33% in 2025, dropping to 19% in the first quarter of 2026 and 14% in the second quarter.Since September 2023, the Netherlands has required export licenses for the NXT:2000i and more advanced immersion deep ultraviolet equipment, effectively banning these models from being shipped to China; a year later, the licensing requirements were extended to the NXT:1980i, but this model can still be approved for shipment on a case-by-case basis.

hot_img UBS: It will be difficult for China to develop EUV lithography equipment comparable to ASML's top-tier products within the next ten years; mass production of DUV may take two to five years

According to Bloomberg, UBS analysts expect that China's semiconductor manufacturing capabilities may struggle to make sufficient progress in the next decade to develop solutions that can truly replace ASML's cutting-edge EUV lithography technology. UBS analysts wrote in their report, "The stage they are currently at seems comparable to ASML's in 2004." Based on patent application activities, especially in the fields of light sources and laser subsystems, China's current technological maturity is roughly equivalent to ASML's level 15 years before it began mass production of EUV equipment.UBS also expects that China is likely to have the capability for mass production of immersion DUV lithography machines within the next two to five years. Although immersion DUV is not as advanced as EUV, it remains an indispensable tool in chip manufacturing. ASML's immersion DUV machines are priced at nearly $90 million, while EUV equipment costs over $200 million each. China is one of ASML's largest markets, but due to export restrictions, ASML is prohibited from selling EUV equipment to China. UBS pointed out that considering the yield and capacity gaps and regulatory restrictions, Chinese lithography equipment is unlikely to be applied overseas. An ASML spokesperson did not respond to requests for comment. The report is based on UBS analysts' predictive views, and actual progress will depend on industry dynamics.

hot_img Domestic immersion DUV lithography machines have started small batch production, with plans to deliver about 5 units this year

According to a report by The Information citing informed sources, a Shanghai state-owned company whose name has not been disclosed has begun producing domestically-made immersion DUV lithography machines, planning to manufacture about 5 units this year and increase to about 20 units by 2027. The first batch of equipment will be delivered to major foundries such as SMIC, Hua Hong Semiconductor, and ChangXin Technology, but the equipment still needs to undergo verification for accuracy, stability, and production line compatibility, a process that may take several months or even longer.Currently, most components of the equipment come from domestic sources, but some key parts still rely on Japan, and the performance and manufacturing quality lag behind ASML. In comparison, ASML is set to deliver about 131 immersion DUV lithography machines as early as 2025. Although domestic equipment has made the leap from prototype testing to small-scale production, there is still a significant gap before it can replace ASML on a large scale. Previously, Reuters reported that the U.S. is considering tightening restrictions on the export of lithography equipment to China and on maintenance services in China, and the delivery of domestic equipment coincides with this backdrop.
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