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Citrini Analyst: The progress of China's DUV is not surprising, the sell-off of semiconductor equipment stocks like ASML is excessive

Citrini analyst Jukan posted on social media that the news of China's progress in DUV lithography technology is not particularly surprising, as the market had already formed certain expectations. He pointed out that The Information's related report only cited a professor from a transportation university in China speaking at an internal meeting in June and did not disclose more substantial information. Jukan believes that the sell-off reaction seen in semiconductor equipment stocks like ASML is an overreaction to this news.According to previous reports, The Information cited sources saying that a state-owned enterprise supported by Chinese state capital has begun mass production of domestically developed DUV (Deep Ultraviolet) lithography manufacturing equipment, marking a key progress in the localization of China's semiconductor industry.Insiders stated that the enterprise plans to produce about 5 domestically made DUV lithography machines by 2026 and expand to about 20 machines by 2027. Although there is still a gap compared to the 131 immersion DUV lithography systems delivered by Dutch lithography giant ASML last year, the entry of domestic equipment into mass production is seen by the market as an important breakthrough in the localization of China's chip supply chain.

Domestic immersion DUV lithography machines have started small batch production, with plans to deliver about 5 units this year

According to a report by The Information citing informed sources, a Shanghai state-owned company whose name has not been disclosed has begun producing domestically-made immersion DUV lithography machines, planning to manufacture about 5 units this year and increase to about 20 units by 2027. The first batch of equipment will be delivered to major foundries such as SMIC, Hua Hong Semiconductor, and ChangXin Technology, but the equipment still needs to undergo verification for accuracy, stability, and production line compatibility, a process that may take several months or even longer.Currently, most components of the equipment come from domestic sources, but some key parts still rely on Japan, and the performance and manufacturing quality lag behind ASML. In comparison, ASML is set to deliver about 131 immersion DUV lithography machines as early as 2025. Although domestic equipment has made the leap from prototype testing to small-scale production, there is still a significant gap before it can replace ASML on a large scale. Previously, Reuters reported that the U.S. is considering tightening restrictions on the export of lithography equipment to China and on maintenance services in China, and the delivery of domestic equipment coincides with this backdrop.
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