Will SpaceX return above the issue price, and will it drop below 100 dollars this year?

Source: BIT Securities

As SpaceX's stock price recently climbed back above the $135 IPO issue price, a question has begun to surface: Will SpaceX drop below the issue price again this year, or even fall below $100?

To answer this question, we first need to review how this round of rebound occurred.

1. The sell-off did not happen: Just because you can sell, doesn't mean you will sell

Previously, the biggest concern in the market was that employees and early investors would sell off their shares in bulk after the lock-up period expired—especially after the earnings report was released in early August, when the first wave of unlocks arrived as expected.

What happened? The anticipated large-scale selling pressure did not materialize, and the stock price rose instead.

This confirms a commonly overlooked fact: unlocking does not equal selling, especially for companies with a long-term positive outlook. Musk and early investors maintain high confidence in the company's long-term prospects, and their willingness to hold shares has not changed due to the unlock—just because you can sell, doesn’t mean you will. When the "concentrated sell-off after unlocking" concern was alleviated, the disappearance of uncertainty itself became a positive factor.

2. The severely undervalued is the computing empire hidden behind the rockets

SpaceX's fundamentals were previously significantly underestimated by the market.

While everyone was focused on Musk's rockets and Starlink satellites, the most overlooked aspect was the AI computing landscape that SpaceX is building. According to the latest disclosed financial reports and strategic plans, SpaceX plans to launch up to 8 GW of computing power. At current market prices, each GW of computing power is worth about $50 billion—if all 8 GW are realized, it corresponds to a massive revenue scale of $400 billion.

To put this number into perspective: In the next 12 to 24 months, just from selling AI computing power, SpaceX is expected to generate hundreds of billions in revenue. Meanwhile, Tesla's current annual revenue is only around $100 billion—equivalent to creating several more Teslas.

3. A further imagination: Moving computing power into orbit

Beyond ground-based computing, SpaceX's long-term narrative has an even larger imaginative space: orbital computing is moving from concept to reality.

And sending things into space is precisely what SpaceX has been doing for over twenty years. Launch costs, payload capacity, satellite networking—these are all advantages that others would have to learn from scratch.

4. Wall Street has already taken action: Median target price of $225

The shift in institutional attitudes is more honest than stock prices. Wall Street is accelerating the inclusion of SpaceX into institutional investment frameworks, with several investment banks already providing target prices: the median is around $225, with a range spanning from $190 to $800—Goldman Sachs around $205, JPMorgan around $225, and Morgan Stanley around $300.

As analyst coverage, valuation models, liquidity, and potential index inclusion gradually improve, SpaceX is completing a transformation: from a "Musk concept stock" to an asset that institutional investors need to compare alongside Nvidia, Microsoft, Amazon, and Google on the same allocation table.

5. In conclusion

Returning to the initial question: Will it drop below the issue price this year?

First, let's look at the bearish side: The most dangerous unlock window has been smoothly passed, the faith-based holdings remain unchanged, the value reassessment of the computing business has just begun, and institutional funds are entering the market—thus, the probability of a short-term drop back below $100 is indeed rapidly diminishing.

However, it must be said upfront: SpaceX's current valuation has already factored in high growth expectations for multiple businesses, including Starlink, Starship, AI infrastructure, and orbital computing. As the supply of shares increases, the "scarcity premium" will gradually dilute. Whether the stock price can rise in the future will depend no longer on "not being able to buy," but on the speed of fundamental realization and whether institutional funds can continuously absorb the new shares.

The story of the rockets has completed its first half. In the second half, we will see how the accounts of computing power are written.

Risk Warning: This article is written and provided by an external contributor. The personnel arrangement information mentioned has been verified, but the specific procurement figures, institutional judgments, and strategic interpretations involved come from public reports and market analysis compilations, which may contain inaccuracies. The views, analyses, and judgments in this article represent the author's personal opinions and do not represent the official position of BIT or BIT Research. BIT also does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of the related content. This article does not constitute investment advice, an offer, or an invitation to offer, nor does it constitute a recommendation for any securities trading. Investment involves the risk of principal loss, market prices may fluctuate significantly, and past performance does not represent future results. Investors should make independent judgments and consult professional advice.