Glassnode: Bitcoin's rebound faces resistance; can weakened selling pressure drive a breakthrough?

Author: Glassnode

Compiled by: Jiahua, ChainCatcher

Core Summary

Bitcoin has rebounded to the edge of the resistance zone, with cost basis data, liquidation charts, and institutional breakeven lines all pointing to the same resistance level. However, as the price approaches this zone, selling pressure is at its lowest level this year. Current actual inflation data is at a two-year low, while yields are at a cycle high. From a macro perspective, the reasons for not raising interest rates clearly outweigh those for raising them.

• Bitcoin has risen 23% over the past 21 trading days, while the stock market has essentially remained flat during the same period, but it is still down 10% year-to-date.
• The core inflation rate has dropped to a two-year low of 2.5%, while inflation expectations remain at 3.6%, creating the largest gap between the two in three years.
• The cost basis of long-term holders, the liquidation distribution, and the ETF breakeven line all point to resistance between $83,000 and $86,000; the spot price was once only 1.5% away from the lower edge of this range.
• When Bitcoin approached the upper range, the selling speed was less than half of the August peak, and long-term holders did not participate in selling during this round of price increase.
• Bottom indicators have formed a clear resonance for several months and have basically exited the extreme weakness zone; altcoins have not taken market share from Bitcoin as they did before previous cycle peaks.

Bitcoin, which lagged at the beginning of the year, is catching up

Recovering from the Bottom

Over the past 21 trading days, Bitcoin has risen 23%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indices have remained roughly flat, and the Euro Stoxx 50 index has slightly declined. Among the seven asset classes we track, Bitcoin has been the best-performing asset during this phase.

However, year-to-date, the situation is quite the opposite. Bitcoin is still down 10% from the beginning of the year, while the S&P 500 is up 13%, and crude oil, the best performer this year, is far ahead of both.

Bitcoin spent the entire summer at the bottom of this performance ranking and has only recently begun to narrow the gap with other assets. The strong performance over the past month has only repaired part of the decline from the first half of the year.

Market Expectations Outpacing Data

This round of Bitcoin's rebound occurred in an overall tight bond market environment. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond closed at 4.8%, matching a two-year high; the 2-year Treasury yield is about 4.38%, approximately 63 basis points higher than the 3.75% federal funds target rate. The bond market is betting that monetary policy may tighten further.

However, actual inflation data does not support this judgment.

The U.S. core inflation rate has dropped to 2.5%, a two-year low, while U.S. inflation expectations remain at 3.6%. The gap between the two has reached a three-year high.

With core inflation continuing to cool, Treasury yields are at cycle highs, making it increasingly difficult for the Federal Reserve to justify raising interest rates. The August CPI data, to be released on September 11, 2026, and the FOMC rate decision on September 16 will directly test this contradiction.

If the core inflation rate moves closer to the 3.6% inflation expectation, the reasons for tightening policy will strengthen; if core inflation continues to remain at current low levels, it suggests that the rise in bond yields may have already outpaced economic data.

Resistance Points to the Same Zone from Multiple Angles

Price Stops Below the Resistance Zone

Last week's report set the upper resistance zone for Bitcoin between $83,000 and $86,000. This round of rebound has tested this judgment but has not truly touched this zone.

On September 3, 2026, Bitcoin's spot price reached a new high above August's but ultimately stopped 1.5% below the lower edge of the resistance zone, followed by narrow fluctuations below $80,000.

The distribution of long-term holders' cost basis explains why this resistance zone is important.

About 1.07 million BTC have a cost basis between $83,000 and $86,000, with the vast majority belonging to long-term holders, and the densest cost range is concentrated around $85,000. This portion of chips has hardly moved in the past 30 days.

What has truly changed is the supply structure below. Chips between $76,000 and $82,000 are mainly held by recent buyers, and their numbers continue to increase; the accumulated chips in the $62,000 to $65,000 range have decreased, indicating that some BTC bought at this position has been transferred.

The market has rebuilt support below the spot price, but the upper resistance zone has yet to be digested.

Liquidation Distribution Also Points to the Same Resistance Zone

The derivatives market provides a similar answer.

From the Bitcoin futures liquidation heatmap, the short liquidation area between $82,000 and $86,000 has expanded by 21% since the short squeeze on August 19; meanwhile, the overall scale of the liquidation chart has shrunk by about one-third.

Currently, the $82,000 to $86,000 range has concentrated one of the largest liquidation volumes since this model began recording.

As the price rose, it entered an increasingly expanding short liquidation area, ultimately stopping below it. Below the current price, there remains a long liquidation area between $60,000 and $63,000, continuing to define the market range from below.

If the price continues to break through $86,000, it will trigger the densest short liquidation liquidity in the market; if it falls below $63,000, it may begin to impact the long positions below.

Institutional Breakeven Line Also Nears $86,000

The third independent indicator also points to the same position.

According to the U.S. spot ETF holding data, based on the BTC cost basis corresponding to the shares issued since the ETF's inception, its breakeven point is approximately $86,000.

Over the past 228 trading days, the BTC holdings corresponding to this ETF have remained below the breakeven line. Its paper loss reached a low of about $18 billion on February 5, 2026; as Bitcoin rebounded, the loss has narrowed to about $3.9 billion. This is the closest the ETF portfolio has been to breakeven since January.

The breakeven point for corporate treasuries is about $80,500, slightly below the current price.

The five cost basis models we track are currently all above the Bitcoin spot price, ranging from $76,600 for the True Market Mean to $86,000 for the ETF breakeven point.

The upper resistance is not a single technical line but a group of real cost basis ranges. If Bitcoin reclaims $86,000, the largest institutional holders will experience their first overall return to profitability this year.

Selling Pressure is Weakening

The Closer to the Resistance Zone, the Less Selling Pressure

As Bitcoin approaches the resistance zone, the market has not seen a significant increase in supply.

The seller risk ratio measures the sum of realized profits and losses relative to the realized market value. The 7-day average of this indicator has now dropped to 7 basis points per day, less than half of the August peak of 16 basis points.

At the market peaks in July and October 2025, this indicator rose to 35 basis points and 23 basis points, respectively. In the past year, only a few trading days have recorded readings below the current level.

The proportion of realized profits contributed by long-term holders has also dropped from 88% at the August peak to 47%. The peak of realized profits on September 3 was less than half of the August peak.

The main sellers this month are recent buyers, while long-term holders have not significantly realized profits, and the selling pressure from short-term holders is also weakening.

If this indicator continues to rise and breaks through 16 basis points again, it would indicate that selling pressure has returned to the vicinity of the August peak. Until then, the selling power in the spot market remains limited.

The Market is Between Bottom Repair and Top Confirmation

Bottom Indicators Have Exited the Extreme Weakness Zone

Among the 45 cycle indicators tracked by the Market Compass indicator dashboard, the proportion of indicators in the extreme weakness zone peaked at 82% for the week ending June 29, 2026, remaining above the long-term median for 41 consecutive weeks.

This is the strongest bottom signal resonance seen in this cycle.

As Bitcoin rises and market valuations gradually repair, the proportion of indicators in the extreme weakness zone has dropped to 2%, effectively eliminating the bottom signal.

However, the market has not moved to the other extreme. Currently, three-quarters of the indicators are below their respective historical midpoints, and there have been no weeks in the past 43 where more than half of the indicators exceeded 50.

Bitcoin has exited the value range but has not yet entered a clearly overvalued area. If more than half of the indicators break above 50, it will be a clearer confirmation signal of a shift in the market cycle.

Altcoins Have Not Yet Shown Abnormal Rotation

In the past month, the total market capitalization of altcoins has risen by 21%. However, what needs to be observed is not whether altcoins are rising, but whether their rise relative to the entire crypto market is strong enough and whether they have begun to take market share from Bitcoin.

Among the four Bitcoin price peaks marked in the chart, three of the peaks occurred after altcoins had significantly increased their market share over the past 90 days, with at least a 2.8 percentage point increase. The peak in December 2017 is the only exception.

Currently, the proportion of altcoins in the total market capitalization of BTC and altcoins has actually decreased by 0.9 percentage points over the past 90 days.

Although altcoins have risen in USD terms, they have not outperformed Bitcoin. Various crypto assets have risen almost simultaneously, with the largest market cap coins still leading the way.

Before a cycle peak is truly formed, there is usually a clear rotation of funds: money flows quickly from Bitcoin to riskier altcoins, with altcoin market cap growth exceeding Bitcoin's own growth rate.

This phase has not yet occurred. If, within the next 90 days, the market share of altcoins increases by 2.8 percentage points or more while Bitcoin approaches historical highs, it would constitute a similar warning to previous cycle peaks. Currently, neither of these conditions has been met.

Conclusion

Bitcoin is consolidating below the resistance zone of $83,000 to $86,000, while three independent indicators—the cost of long-term holders, liquidation distribution, and the ETF breakeven line—point to the same resistance range.

The current market is still in a state of oscillation where support has been repaired, but the top has not yet broken through.

Compared to August, the most noticeable change in this round of market activity is the significant reduction in selling pressure: the seller risk ratio is less than half of the August peak, and long-term holders have not realized profits on a large scale, but the liquidity for short liquidations above is continuously increasing.

If Bitcoin can consistently close above $86,000, while the seller risk ratio remains low, it would indicate that the market has absorbed the selling pressure above.

Conversely, if the seller risk ratio breaks through 16 basis points again, or if the price falls below the support range of $62,000 to $65,000, the current judgment will become invalid.