Analysis: Bitcoin has once again shown a "golden cross failure," and history indicates that the upward trend is mostly completed before the signal appears

According to CoinDesk, Bitcoin formed a golden cross earlier this week (the 50-day moving average crossing above the 200-day moving average), but subsequently did not experience a sustained increase, instead retreating from around $80,000 to about $77,000. It is noteworthy that most of the recent rise occurred before the golden cross—Bitcoin had previously risen from $62,000 to $82,000.

The article points out that similar situations have historically repeated multiple times: after the golden cross in 2021, BTC fell from $52,000 to $40,000; after the golden cross in February 2023, it retreated from $23,000 to $20,000; after the golden cross in October 2024, it slid from $70,000 to $67,000; and after the golden cross in May 2025, it corrected from $110,000 to $100,000. Analysts believe that while the golden cross is seen as a long-term bullish signal, it may essentially be a lagging indicator, as a significant portion of the gains often have already been realized by the time the signal appears.