Jiang Zhuo'er: It is expected that after the Federal Reserve's decision, the market will first decline and then rise, with BTC possibly reaching 84,000 USD

Jiang Zhuoer, the founder of Liebit Mining Pool (B.TOP), posted on platform X that at 2 AM Beijing time on September 17, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision. According to the 30-day federal funds futures prices, the current probability of a 25 basis point rate hike is about 92%. He expects the Federal Reserve to raise the target interest rate range from 3.50% to 3.75% to 3.75% to 4.00%, believing that this outcome is basically a foregone conclusion.

After the interest rate decision is announced, the Federal Reserve will also release the dot plot. Jiang Zhuoer stated that attention should be focused on the median of the interest rate forecast and the central trend range after excluding the highest and lowest three points each. He expects the dot plot to show two rate hikes in total by 2026, meaning there will be one more rate hike within this year after the current hike, and the related expectations may lead to a short-term market decline.

Jiang Zhuoer believes that the speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh, starting at 2:30 AM, is the biggest variable and expects it may release dovish signals. Therefore, he judges that the most likely market path is "falling first and then rising": a decline after the interest rate decision and dot plot announcement, followed by a rebound after Warsh's speech. He expects Bitcoin may drop below $75,000 before rebounding to $83,000 to $84,000, followed by a significant adjustment.