Wintermute: Two major catalysts land, BTC breaks range to create an eight-month high

Wintermute released the market weekly report, stating that the Federal Reserve passed an interest rate hike of 25 basis points to 3.75-4% with a unanimous vote of 12-0 on September 21. Sixteen officials expect at least one more rate hike this year, and inflation is not expected to return to the 2% target before 2029.

The two major catalysts that the market was focused on—the FOMC rate hike and the CLARITY Act—have both materialized: the CLARITY Act failed to pass in the Senate (49-50, not reaching the 60-vote threshold), and the SEC and CFTC immediately stated they would formulate cryptocurrency regulatory rules under existing authority. The market adjusted for only one trading day before recovering. BTC traded this week in the range of $75,000 to $81,000, with a weekly closing price of $81,159, marking the first time since last November that it has stood above the 50-week moving average; ETH rose 6.7%, trading in the range of $2,350 to $2,600.

In terms of ETF funds, there was a net outflow of $746 million from Tuesday to Wednesday, followed by a return of $593 million from Thursday to Friday, resulting in a net outflow of about $6 million over five trading days, with the outflow triggered by CLARITY almost fully replenished within 48 hours. Entering this week, both BTC and ETH broke through the upper range before the U.S. stock market opened, accompanied by about $250 million in short liquidations, with BTC briefly reaching $86,000, a new eight-month high.