David Hoffman: In 2026, ZEC will be similar to ETH in 2021, and NEAR will win the smart contract buying market

David Hoffman, founding partner of Bankless Ventures, published a discussion on the "Bitcoin Buy Side Trophy," stating that the crypto market occasionally sees a single asset absorbing the capital shift from Bitcoin holders. The Bitcoin community has long maintained a consensus of "holding only BTC," with a scale of about $1.7 trillion; individual shifts usually go unnoticed, but when enough people turn to the same asset, it becomes contagious. He cited 2021's ETH as an example, where its market cap rose from about $12 billion at the bottom to about $554 billion at the top, and referenced Su Zhu's statement from October that year, indicating that some people specifically moved cold-stored Bitcoin to buy ETH, and some publicly known Bitcoin maximalists may privately hold ETH.

He believes that ZEC in 2026 is similar to ETH in 2021, having formed a consensus point for some Bitcoin capital, with reasons including privacy, quantum, or as a hedge against Bitcoin exposure "just in case." ZEC's market cap rose from about $200 million to about $2.6 billion, which is still small relative to the $1.7 trillion BTC; the key lies in relative scale rather than dollar appreciation, as the buying pressure is driven by Bitcoin wealth. As long as a very small proportion of holders can be persuaded to allocate a small amount of ZEC, the buying pressure will continue; very few people skip BTC, ETH, and other crypto assets to buy based solely on ZEC's own merits.

He also believes that NEAR will win the weaker "smart contract buy side" in 2026, with funds coming from more decentralized market participants. The crypto market has always prioritized value storage, with smart contract chains coming second; ETH's position is weaker than BTC's, and SOL's challenge to ETH is greater than any asset's challenge to BTC.