Selected Hot News

Federal Reserve Dynamics

U.S. PMI significantly exceeds expectations, 10-year Treasury yield rises to the highest level since 2007

• The U.S. September S&P Global Manufacturing PMI preliminary value rose to 57.0, higher than the market expectation of 53.6, reaching the highest level since May 2022.
• The Services PMI rose to 58.7, and the Composite PMI rose to 58.4, the latter reaching the highest level since July 2021.
• The survey shows a rapid growth in new orders, but supply chain delays and rising input costs have led to an increase in the business input price index, reaching the highest level since October 2022.
• Federal Reserve Governor Barr stated that the Fed may still need to raise interest rates further to drive inflation down. The market has priced in about a 71% probability of a rate hike at the October meeting.
• The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond rose to about 5.11%, reaching the highest level since 2007.

Market Impact: Strong economic activity combined with cost pressures has led the market to reassess the Fed's rate hike path. The rise in long-term yields increases the discount rate for tech stock valuations and also raises financing pressures for real estate, consumer credit, and capital-intensive enterprises. If employment data continues to be strong, "high rates maintained for longer" may remain a recent market theme.

International Commodities

Oil rebounds after a decline, but unexpected increase in U.S. inventories limits gains

• Iran stated that if the U.S. eases military pressure and lifts the blockade on Iranian ports, it could reopen the Strait of Hormuz within a week.
• Saudi Arabia has restarted its east-west oil pipeline, but full restoration of damaged facilities is expected to take six to eight weeks.
• U.S. EIA data shows that commercial crude oil inventories increased by 2.969 million barrels for the week ending September 18, while the market had previously expected a decrease of about 640,000 barrels.
• WTI current active futures contract has rebounded to around $92 per barrel, while ICE Brent current active contract remains around $99 per barrel.

Market Impact: Middle Eastern supply risks continue to support oil prices, but the recovery of Saudi pipelines and the increase in U.S. inventories limit the upside potential. If oil prices continue to rebound, it will benefit upstream energy companies but may also raise inflation and interest rate expectations, thereby putting pressure on tech stocks and other long-duration assets.

International Economic and Trade Policies

Trump and Xi Jinping to meet today, trade truce and AI policies become the focus

• U.S. President Trump is scheduled to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Washington on September 24.
• The market expects both sides to discuss extending the current trade truce, agricultural and aircraft purchases, rare earth supply, AI regulation, and restrictions on advanced technology exports.
• They may also discuss the situation in the Middle East and Taiwan, but the market is currently more focused on whether a phased arrangement can be established for stable economic and trade relations.
• The market generally expects this meeting to focus on maintaining communication and controlling differences, with limited likelihood of reaching a comprehensive trade agreement.

Market Impact: If both sides signal an extension of the trade truce or an expansion of purchases, sectors such as semiconductors, consumer electronics, agriculture, and cross-border e-commerce may benefit; if technology export restrictions tighten further, the risk premium for AI chips and related supply chains may rise again.

# Market Review

Commodity and Forex Performance

• Gold Futures: Approximately $4,318.40 per ounce.
• Silver Futures: Approximately $64.38 per ounce.
• WTI Crude Oil Futures: Approximately $92.16 per barrel.
• Brent Crude Oil Futures: Approximately $99.32 per barrel, using ICE current active contract.
• U.S. Dollar Index (DXY): Approximately 100.91.
• U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield: Approximately 5.11%.

Driving Analysis: Strong PMI data, hawkish statements from the Fed, and rising U.S. Treasury yields have driven the dollar stronger, putting significant pressure on gold and silver. Oil has stopped falling under geopolitical risk support, but the recovery of Saudi supply and the increase in U.S. crude oil inventories have limited the rebound.

Cryptocurrency Performance

• BTC: Approximately 84,316 USDT, down about 2.49% in 24 hours, with a 24-hour trading volume of about $45.8 billion.
• ETH: Approximately 2,683 USDT, down about 2.87% in 24 hours.
• Total Cryptocurrency Market Capitalization: Approximately $2.86 trillion, down about 2.3% in 24 hours.
• Total Market 24-Hour Trading Volume: Approximately $129.8 billion, an increase of about 11% from the previous day.

Volume and Price Observation: BTC and ETH fell simultaneously, while total market trading volume rebounded significantly, indicating that price corrections are accompanied by increased trading activity, with short-term selling pressure intensifying. ETH's decline was slightly larger than BTC's, reflecting a decrease in market risk appetite for higher volatility assets in a high-interest-rate environment.

The latest weekly disclosure shows that Strategy bought 950 BTC between September 14 and 20, investing about $75.7 million at an average price of about $79,670; BitMine bought 27,562 ETH during the same period, raising its total holdings to 5,983,940 ETH. These are the latest disclosed weekly positions and do not represent new buying during the trading session on September 24. Institutional accumulation provides support for mid-term demand but is currently insufficient to reverse the short-term correction driven by macro rates.

Driving Analysis: The retreat of crypto assets is mainly influenced by rising U.S. Treasury yields, increasing Fed rate hike expectations, and profit-taking after previous gains. Future attention should focus on U.S. employment data, long-term yields, and BTC's support in the $83,000-$84,000 range.

Major U.S. Stock Index Performance

• Dow Jones Industrial Average: Closed at 51,511.59 points, down 0.68%.
• S&P 500 Index: Closed at 7,706.03 points, down 0.75%.
• NASDAQ Composite Index: Closed at 26,936.04 points, down 1.13%.

Tech Giants Dynamics

• NVIDIA (NVDA): $225.51, down 1.49%.
• Apple (AAPL): $337.02, down 0.85%.
• Microsoft (MSFT): $500.59, up 0.56%.
• Alphabet (GOOGL): $337.83, down 3.83%.
• Amazon (AMZN): $249.27, down 2.21%.
• Meta (META): $744.10, up 1.02%.
• Tesla (TSLA): $380.12, up 0.32%.

Performance Summary and Driving Analysis: Among the seven major tech stocks, three rose and four fell. Alphabet and Amazon led the declines, while NVIDIA was also affected by rising interest rates and valuation pressures on tech stocks; Meta, Microsoft, and Tesla rose against the trend. Meta continued its strong performance following the release of the Muse AI agent, while Amazon has restricted Muse's access to its shopping platform, reflecting the intensifying competition between AI agents and e-commerce platforms.

Sector Movement Observation

Cybersecurity: AI security services launch boosts sector strength

• Representative Stocks: Palo Alto Networks rose 4.99%; CrowdStrike rose 4.95%; Okta rose 4.44%.
• Driving Factors: Palo Alto Networks launched the Unit 42 Continuous Frontier AI Defense service, utilizing Anthropic, OpenAI, and open-weight models to continuously detect security vulnerabilities in enterprise applications, APIs, and cloud infrastructure. The new product has strengthened market expectations for growth in AI security spending and improved sentiment in the cybersecurity sector.

Energy Sector: Oil rebound drives upstream companies higher

• Representative Stocks: ConocoPhillips rose 2.27%; ExxonMobil rose 1.62%; Chevron rose 1.54%.
• Driving Factors: The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz still comes with conditions, and Middle Eastern supply risks have driven oil prices to stop falling and rebound. However, the increase in U.S. inventories means that any rebound in oil prices may still be accompanied by significant volatility.

# In-Depth Analysis of U.S. Stocks

1. McDonald's (MCD) ------ $8.5 billion franchisee support plan raises short-term return concerns

Event Overview: McDonald's fell 4.81% on September 23, closing at $238.32. The company announced the McDonald's > NEXT strategy on Investor Day, planning to provide about $8.5 billion in franchisee support by 2036, with about $5 billion to be invested before 2030, primarily for rent reductions, restaurant modernization, and capital support.

Market Interpretation: The company expects the NEXT plan to bring about a 250 basis point improvement in restaurant-level efficiency, equivalent to an annual increase of about $100,000 in cash flow per average U.S. store. The company also expects new store expansion to contribute nearly 2.5% to system sales growth by 2027 and about 2% by 2030, setting a target operating profit margin of 50% to 55% by 2030. The main concern in the market is the large upfront capital investment, while there remains uncertainty about whether customer traffic, sales, and franchisee returns can improve in a timely manner.

Investment Insight: Future focus should be on same-store sales in the U.S., customer traffic, franchisee investment returns, the speed of NEXT plan deployment, and changes in operating profit margins. If efficiency improvements and customer traffic growth cannot be realized in a timely manner, the company's free cash flow and valuation may still come under pressure.

2. Palo Alto Networks (PANW) ------ AI security services rollout, commercialization capability becomes the next validation point

Event Overview: Palo Alto Networks rose 4.99%, closing at $393.30. The company launched the Unit 42 Continuous Frontier AI Defense, which combines multiple models and security experts to conduct continuous attack testing and vulnerability validation for enterprise applications, APIs, and cloud infrastructure.

Market Interpretation: As enterprises expand generative AI applications, model attacks, permission management, data breaches, and software supply chain security have become new spending directions. This service adopts an annual subscription model, with pricing depending on the model combinations chosen by customers, and is expected to expand high-value security service revenue.

Investment Insight: Focus on product orders, annual recurring revenue, customer adoption rates, and service delivery costs. The stock price increase has already factored in some growth expectations, and future support for valuation will still require actual subscription revenue and profit margin performance.

3. Paychex (PAYX) ------ Overall performance growth, but core business growth rate below expectations

Event Overview: Paychex fell 8.82%, closing at $104.49. The company's revenue for the first quarter of fiscal year 2027 was $1.6305 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6%; adjusted earnings per share were $1.34, a year-on-year increase of 10%.

Market Interpretation: The company's largest Management Solutions business revenue grew by 4% to $1.2131 billion, but this was below some market expectations, becoming the main reason for the stock price decline. The company maintained its guidance for total revenue growth of 5% to 6% for the year and adjusted earnings per share growth of 7% to 9%, while raising the guidance for PEO and insurance business revenue growth from 6% to 7% to 7% to 8%, and also raised expectations for client fund interest income.

Investment Insights: Future focus should be on the growth of Management Solutions clients, client retention rates, revenue per client, and small and medium-sized enterprise hiring conditions. Improvements in PEO business and interest income provide some buffer, but if core payroll and human resources business continues to slow down, overall valuation may still come under pressure.

### Market and Project Dynamics

1. Binance Invests in Circle: Binance announced an investment of $100 million in Circle and extended their strategic partnership for five years, focusing on expanding the use of USDC in Binance products and emerging markets.
2. U.S. SEC Launches Tokenized Stock Exemption Mechanism: The SEC provides a five-year conditional exemption to eligible tokenized securities trading platforms and liquidity providers. Related tokenized stocks must retain shareholder rights such as dividends and voting rights, and the issuing company has the right to oppose the tokenization of its stock.
3. Strategy Continues to Increase BTC Holdings: Strategy purchased 950 BTC between September 14 and 20, investing approximately $75.7 million at an average price of about $79,670, raising total holdings to 846,000 BTC.
4. BitMine Continues to Increase ETH Holdings: BitMine bought 27,562 ETH in the week ending September 20, raising its total holdings to 5,983,940 ETH, of which approximately 5.067 million have been staked.

### Today's Market Calendar

All times are in Beijing Time (UTC+8).
Time
Country/Region
Event
Market Attention

|-------------|-------|------------------|-------| | September 24, 16:10 | United States | Speech by New York Fed President Williams | ⭐⭐⭐ | | September 24, 20:30 | United States | Initial jobless claims for the week ending September 19 | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | | September 24, 20:50 | United States | Speech by Cleveland Fed President Mester | ⭐⭐⭐ | | September 24, 22:00 | United States | August new home sales | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | | September 24, 22:10 | United States | Speech by Philadelphia Fed President Harker | ⭐⭐⭐ | | September 24 | United States/China | U.S.-China Presidential Meeting in Washington | ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ |

Key Event Forecast

• U.S.-China Presidential Meeting: Focus on whether the trade truce will be extended and whether there will be progress on issues such as rare earths, agricultural products, technology export restrictions, and artificial intelligence regulation.
• Costco Earnings: The company plans to announce its Q4 results for fiscal year 2026 after the U.S. market closes on September 24, focusing on membership fee income, same-store sales, profit margins, and consumer spending trends.
• U.S. Employment and Housing Data: If initial jobless claims and new home sales continue to perform strongly, it may further strengthen market expectations for a Fed rate hike in October.
• U.S. Data on September 25: Durable goods orders and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment final value will be the next batch of important macro data.

Institutional Views

Lauren Cassidy, Chief Investment Officer of Founders 100 ETF, believes that if the Middle East conflict remains unresolved, the "high interest rate environment will persist longer," continuing to suppress U.S. stocks.

UBS Global Wealth Management remains optimistic about the AI investment theme, citing reasons such as widespread application, commercialization progress, and increased capital expenditures. However, after U.S. Treasury yields rise above 5%, market demands for technology companies' revenue, profits, and cash flow realization will significantly increase.

Disclaimer: This content is for market information exchange only and does not constitute investment advice. Market prices can change at any time; please refer to real-time quotes at the time of trading.