Analyst: Bitcoin market momentum has shifted, confirming a bull market for the 5th time in history

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated that the cost basis of short-term holders (STH) of Bitcoin has confirmed a crossover above the cost basis of active long-term holders (LTH), indicating a shift in market momentum. Based on this, he judges that the Bitcoin bull market has been confirmed. This is the 5th occurrence of this signal in history, but he emphasized that there is still a possibility of misjudgment regarding the relevant indicators.

"Active LTH" is defined as long-term held supply that has moved at least once in the past 7 years, to exclude long-term dormant or illiquid BTC. Currently, over 3.5 million BTC that have been held for more than 10 years remain dormant, with this portion of supply increasing by an average of about 8,000 to 30,000 BTC per month. Since 2019, this indicator has only shown negative growth once, due to an early miner reactivating and transferring about 100,000 BTC, which is considered a relatively isolated event. Darkfost believes that this signal currently reflects positive changes in the Bitcoin market, with ETF liquidity inflows being one of the driving factors.